Exit polls: Edge to NC-Congress, but BJP projected to hold fort in Jammu region

Arjun Sharma/Adil Akhzer

Three days before the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election results on October 8, most exit polls on Saturday predicted an edge to the National Conference (NC) – Congress alliance. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was projected to again emerge as a big force in the Jammu region.

The three-phase Assembly elections concluded peacefully in Jammu and Kashmir on October 1. These were the first Assembly poll in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370.

As the exit polls were announced on Saturday evening, most of them predicted that the NC-Congress alliance would have an edge, getting over 35-40 seats, while the BJP, whose campaign focused aggressively in Jammu, are getting at least 20-25 seats in the region.

India Today – C-voter has predicted 40-48 seats for NC-Congress alliance and 27-32 seats for the BJP. The poll has given 6-12 seats to PDP whereas others have been given 6-11 seats.

Times Now exit polls have predicted 31-36 seats for NC-Congress, 28-30 for BJP and 5-7 for PDP and 8-16 for others.

While there were 87 seats in the Assembly of the erstwhile state (with Ladakh), there are 90 seats now. Six seats have been added in Jammu region whereas one has been added in Kashmir. In the 2014 elections, PDP had won 28 seats, BJP 25, NC 15 and the Congress 12.

People’s Pulse exit poll has predicted 13-15 seats independently for Congress and 33-35 seats for NC. The exit poll has given 23-27 seats to BJP and 7-11 seats for PDP. It has also predicted 4-5 seats for others.

Axis My India exit poll has predicted 24-34 seats for BJP, 35-45 for NC-Congress, 4-6 for PDP and 8-27 for others.

If the exit polls match the October 8 results, it would indicate that the BJP continues its strong presence in the Jammu region and the Congress has failed to dent the voter base of BJP in Jammu region.

On the other hand, in Kashmir, going by the exit polls, National Conference is projected to have gained heavily, winning seats at the cost of People’s Democratic Party. There is also a possibility of a hung Assembly in case no party is able to get the majority.

According to NDTV poll of polls, BJP is projected to get 27 seats, the NC-Congress alliance 41, seven seats to PDP and 15 to others.

After the delimitation, the number of elected MLAs is 90 and the halfway mark is 45. With five nominated members as well in the scene, if the members would be allowed to vote, the number moves to 48.

PDP leaders in the valley have been maintaining that their alliance with BJP in 2014 impacted the party, besides large numbers of leaders quitting the party after 2019 to join the Apni Party which was formed in 2020.

This time, PDP is projected to get around 6-9 seats in J-K whereas Independents and parties like Sajad Lone-led Peoples Conference and Engineer Rashid-led Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) are expected to win 8-11 seats. It needs to be seen how parties like Apni Party and Democratic Azad Progressive Party (DPAP) and also Jamaat-backed candidates perform in the October 8 results.

If the exit polls are to be believed, the NC-Congress alliance are less likely to need any external support.

However, the PDP had already said that they would give support to any party to keep BJP out. On Saturday, the NC had stated recently that it was not in ‘back-channel’ talks with parties outside INDIA bloc. PDP is also part of the bloc.

The BJP, in the Assembly elections, led an aggressive campaign for all the three phases of poll in Jammu region where Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held multiple rallies. BJP is eyeing Hindu areas of Jammu region.

The Congress was, on the other hand, even criticised by its alliance partner National Conference for a low-key campaign in the Jammu region, where the Congress got most of the seats in the alliance.

On Saturday evening, former Jammu and Kashmir CM and NC vice-president Omar Abdullah said he is “amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent General Election.” “I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on October 8. The rest is just time pass,” he wrote on X.