BJP upbeat about J&K results; sure of first-ever win in Valley
Central BJP leadership is upbeat about Jammu and Kashmir election results on October 8 with internal party surveys signalling "positive outcomes."
The saffron party is also hoping to end its electoral drought in the Kashmir Valley with assessments indicating possibilities that it could win Gurez assembly seat located in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency.
The BJP has never won any seat in the Kashmir Valley.
Speaking to The Tribune today, BJP leaders who steered the J&K election strategy said they were, along with friendly parties, hoping to cross the majority mark of 48 in a 95 member UT assembly. This number — 95 — includes five nominated MLAs, 47 seats in Kashmir and 43 in Jammu.
"In our assessment which may look ambitious to many, we can win 33 seats on our own — 32 in Jammu and one in the Valley," a senior BJP functionary told The Tribune.
Party strategists are hoping that BJP's friendly parties — People's Conference and Apni Party would win at least 4 and 3 seats respectively and BJP backed independents 8.
This number comes to 48. Add to this five nominated MLAs and the number of MLAs touches 53 in a house of 95 where the simple majority is 48.
BJP leaders have riders though — since this election is being held for the first time in a decade; for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and because many new factors are at play — including Jamaat-e-Islami and Engineer Rashid backed candidates; seven small parties; record number of independents in the fray — "October 8 outcomes may vary from internal party assessment results."
The BJP surveys are expecting the National Conference-Congress-CPM alliance to bag 33, 6 and 1 seat respectively taking their total number to 40.
"As per our surveys, PDP and Engineer Rashid's Party and allies are likely to bag around 7 seats," a top BJP office bearer said exuding confidence of a win in J&K.
Tarun Chugh, BJP general secretary in charge of J&K, told this correspondent that the 2024 election was about "India's narrative versus Pakistan's narrative and India's narrative will win."
Historically the BJP has contested a very low number of seats in the Kashmir Valley.
This time the party fielded 19 candidates in Valley's 47 seats — the lowest in 28 years. It was in 1996 that the BJP had fielded 13 candidates in Kashmir.
In 1983 (soon after BJP was formed in 1980) the party contested three seats and in 1987 two. In 2002, BJP fielded 28 nominees followed by 26 in 2008 and 34 in 2014.
In 2014 polls, the BJP won 25 seats in Jammu division and formed an alliance government with the PDP which had bagged 28 seats in Kashmir.
The alliance soon fell apart.
On the importance of J&K elections this time, Chugh said, "We have already fought and won three battles in J&K since early 2024 — the battle against terrorists who threatened to disrupt the poll process. Peaceful, incident free polls is the first win. The second win is the return of people's faith in the democratic process with even Jamaat-e-Islami fielding candidates. This trust had been lost to the events of 1987. The third is the belief among Kashmiris that even they — and not just dynasts — can contest and win."
Tarun Chugh said the successful conduct of District Development Council elections in J&K after the abrogation of Article 370 was the turning point in UT's electoral history.
"That election had been billed by the united Gupkar alliance as a referendum on the abrogation of Article 370. Out of nearly 10 lakh votes polled, five lakh were polled against the Gupkar alliance and in favour of stability," said Chugh, who, along with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and RSS' Ram Madhav, BJP's poll in charge for J&K, steered UT's election strategy.
