When will the cold set in, Northwest India feels ‘unseasonal’ warmth in November
As governments and representatives of industry, businesses and civil society prepare for tough negotiations at the UN climate conference—Conference of Parties (CoP)—in Baku to tackle climate change, NASA released some ominous data about prevailing high temperatures across the globe, signifying major implications for health, productivity and energy, amongst other aspects.
According to NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, October 2024 was the “second-hottest October in the GISTEMP record” with average temperature for the month 1.32°C (2.38°F) warmer than the long-term average for October based on the period from 1951–1980.
The above-average temperatures continue the long-term warming trend driven by human activities, it says. “Last month was slightly cooler than October 2023, though the margins of error for both months overlap, so the two are effectively tied,” it adds.
The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis is an estimate of global surface temperature change.
India
India, too, experienced its warmest October due to the absence of western disturbances and the influence of easterly winds from active low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal. However, the IMD has predicted “warmer- than-usual” November and the possibility of “severe” winter if La Nina develops.
Late January and February would become the "real winter months with signs of cold weather only emerging around December", say experts
Last week, North India recorded a minimum temperature “above normal by 2- 5º C”.
Average maximum temperature also remained above normal by 3-5º C over Northwest and 2-4º C above normal over the most parts of the country, except parts of Northeast and Peninsular India where it was normal, as per the IMD
Minimum temperatures, as on date, continue to be above normal by 3-5℃ in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, northwest Rajasthan, Bihar and Jharkhand.
They are above normal by 2-3℃ over southwest Rajasthan, north Gujarat and East Madhya Pradesh, according to the weather office.
Delhi-NCR region
The Delhi-NCR region, which has been grappling with an additional burden of health-dilapidating pollution, there has been a slight fall in maximum and minimum temperature in the past 24 hours. But it is not enough to switch off air conditioners in November, the month when ideally there should be chill in the air.
Maximum and minimum temperatures over Delhi continue to be in the range of 30-32°C and 14 -19°C, respectively.
Maximum temperature is above normal by 1 – 2°C and minimum temperature above normal by 3-5°C over most places in the region, India's official weather forecaster says. Cold weather remains absent and so does clear air due to prevailing pollution levels.
When will the cold set in?
The delay in winter is also being attributed to neutral conditions prevailing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Experts say the unusually warm weather is expected to continue for some more time, till the time La Nina sets in.
The IMD has hinted at the possibility of a severe winter in northern India, particularly in Northwest and Central parts of the country on the possibility of La Nina setting in by December.
Meteorologists say ENSO neutral conditions are slowly moving towards the negative side and La Nina can be expected by December.
El Nino, La Nina
Sea Surface Temperatures, or SSTs as these are called, play an important role in shaping atmospheric circulations and weather systems across the globe.
Known for its disruptive influence on several worldwide weather patterns, El Nino develops when the SST over the central Pacific region becomes warmer than normal.
La Nina or anti-El Nino is when the SST over the central Pacific region gets cooler than normal. When SST over the central Pacific is normal, it is called a neutral condition.
Basically, El Nino and La Nina are prolonged warming or cooling of the Pacific Ocean SSTs compared to their average values.
