The Tribune Analysis: Can BJP and ‘Mahayuti’ circumvent agrarian, Maratha reservation challenges in upcoming Maharashtra assembly elections?

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh August 21

Delinking Maharashtra assembly elections from Haryana may have given the ruling ‘Mahayuti’ alliance of BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) some breathing space to get its house in order, the big question is whether it will be sufficient to circumvent political challenges posed by angry farmers and the Maratha movement and its face Manoj Jarange Patil in the upcoming polls in the key state.

Notably, it is after 15 years that the Election Commission of India has decoupled elections in Maharashtra and Haryana due to “heavy deployment of forces needed for the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir”.

Maratha agitation

According to ground reports, Maratha reservation and unrest/anger in the farming community continue to be among top concerns of the ruling alliance.  

Recently, Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil accused BJP’s Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of playing a spoilsport and posing hurdles in their demands, including reservations. Reports quoted Jarange Patil as claiming that though Chief Minister Eknath Shinde (of Shiv Sena) was willing to grant various demands, including reservations, Fadanvis was “obstructing”, charges that the senior BJP leader dismissed.

Repeated allegations by Jarange Patil saw Fadnavis offering to resign if Shinde corroborated the charge. Shinde too dismissed the charges as baseless and emphasised Fadnavis’s “significant role in the Maratha reservation process”, however, opposition the Congress lapped them up with state president Nana Patole claiming “substance” in Jarange Patil’s utterances.

According to political observers, either way it is a tricky situation for the ruling party.

Though Shinde claims reservation to the Maratha community would not affect other communities (including OBCs) they point to the repercussion of apprehensions among Dalits regarding changes in the Constitution based on INDIA bloc’s narrative during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The build-up on Maratha reservation issue has the potential to affect Maharashtra assembly polls if BJP does not tackle it well, they add.

Jarange Patil’s agitation for Maratha quota saw 'Mahayuti' candidates facing the anger of Maratha voters in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Other issues

Besides negative perceptions due to “broken” Shiv Sena and NCP, late announcement of candidates and intake of controversial leaders from outside, another issues that affected BJP-led NDA’s performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was farmers’ anger.

BJP won 9 seats, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena 7 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP one seat, thereby reducing the NDA total to 17 in the state that sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

After the results, Fadnavis even urged the central leadership to relieve him of his duties.

Western Maharashtra’s sugarcane belt, Vidarbha and Marathwada’s cotton and soybean belt and north’s onion farmers showed their anger over various issues via votes and BJP is doing its best to assuage feelings and earn good will.

Jarange Patil, Fadnavis and BJP

Emerging as the face of the Maratha movement, Jarange Patil has announced that it will intensify in the coming days. He has been targeting both ruling and opposition parties for “neglecting” the Maratha community, however, BJP and Fadnavis seem to be on the “top” of his list of targets.

Fadnavis also accused him of helping BJP’s opponents under the guise of the movement.

According to ground reports, the Opposition too is trying to make the most of the situation by providing “tacit” support to agitation. Meanwhile, Jarange Patil is also said to be preparing to launch some candidates.

Observers say that Jarange Patil has backing of several leaders and the buzz is that they may include some from ‘Mahayuti’ allies as well. Apart from the possible support he may have from opposition parties, speculations are also there over growing proximity between Shinde and Sharad Pawar, which may be another cause of worry for BJP and Fadnavis.