Assembly election verdict: BJP bags Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh; Congress gets Telangana

Tribune News Service

Aditi Tandon

New Delhi, December 3

The BJP on Sunday swept the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in stunning victories, leaving only Telangana for the Congress as the saffron party gained a massive head start over rivals ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections.

Editorial: BJP on top

“Today’s hat-trick is a guarantee of BJP’s hat-trick in 2024,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, terming the wins “historic and unprecedented” and noting that women had assumed the responsibility of ensuring saffron sweeps even though all segments — poor, farmers, first-time voters and tribals —generously voted for the BJP. The BJP is all set to form governments in the three cow belt states, which it had lost on the eve of the 2019 General Election. The three states account for 65 Lok Sabha seats.

• BJP tightens hold on Hindi heartland, retains MP with big win, returns to power in R’sthan
• Chhattisgarh comes as cherry on saffron cake as most pollsters proved off the mark
• Cong to form first non-BRS govt in Telangana; PM says 3-1 victory surety of LS hat-trick

Will power investor confidence in india

The echo of these results will resonate across world & power investor confidence. The world is watching how mature Indian democracy & voters are. — Narendra Modi, PM

Will prepare for ls

We will overcome temporary setbacks and prepare ourselves for the coming LS polls. — M Kharge, Cong Chief

Modi’s guarantee

Polls have made it clear that there is only one guarantee in the country, that is Modi’s guarantee. — JP nadda, BJP Chief

BJP to rule 12 states

• With the BJP winning 3 states on Sunday, it will now be in power in 12 states on its own
• The number of states ruled by Congress has come down to three after its defeats in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh

2nd best show in MP

• In MP, the BJP won a two-thirds majority and the party posted second-best performance ever
• In 2003, it had won 173 of the 230 seats under Uma Bharti

In MP, the BJP offset a four-term anti-incumbency under Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, garnering a two-thirds majority. The party posted the second-best performance ever, the best being in 2003 when it had won 173 of the 230 Assembly seats under Uma Bharti. The BJP today bagged 162 seats with leads in 1 (total 163 in a House of 116 majority) and a vote share of 48.55 per cent—9 per cent higher than in 2018—against Congress’ 40.40 per cent. The Congress failed to convert anti-incumbency into a win in MP with party veterans Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh’s latent differences harming prospects.

In Rajasthan, the BJP ensured voters followed the decades old revolving door policy by ousting incumbent Congress and in Chhattisgarh, it dislodged CM Bhupesh Baghel-led Congress dispensation, posting the best show since 2000 when the state was formed. The saffron outfit scored victory in 54 seats in a 90-member House (majority mark 46). The BJP’s previous best performance in Chhattisgarh was 50 seats in 2003 and 2008. The saffron vote share in the state rose by a whopping 13.38 per cent over 2018 in results which no pollster had predicted. With Sunday outcomes, the BJP is in power in 12 states on its own and the Congress in three (Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka).

In Telangana, the Congress defeated the ruling BRS, posting its best performance ever in the region and managed 64 seats in a House of 119 where the majority mark is 60. The party is all set to form the government. The BRS won 39 seats, BJP 8 and AIMIM 7. Even in Telangana, the BJP improved its performance from one seat in 2018 to eight today. The results signalled a massive setback for the Congress and anti-BJP INDIA bloc, which would need to redraft poll narratives for the LS polls as none of their planks worked. The Congress would need to especially recalibrate to take on the BJP in direct fights where the latter, on an average, has over 80 per cent strike rate.

The Congress’ promises of a caste census, freebies, farm loan waivers, pro-women and pro-youth sops failed to impress voters, with women, youth and tribal votes decisively going in the BJP’s favour across all three Hindi belt states. Anti-Sanatan Dharma remarks by Congress ally DMK could also have harmed the party in the Hindi heartland with the PM today saying that the vote was a warning to those “who indulged in politics of abuse, negativity and frustration and a signal of people’s zero tolerance for corruption, appeasement and dynasties”.

Women’s vote appears to have especially gone to the BJP with the PM acknowledging the trend and saying, “No one can harm those whom women decide to shield.”

The PM, in his thanks-giving to voters at the BJP headquarters, said women’s reservation law resonated with the female voters who backed BJP candidates. In MP particularly, where women vote percentage rose 2.19 per cent over 2018, ‘Laadli Behna’ direct cash (Rs 1,250 a month) transfer scheme for 1.32 crore poor married women converted into votes, emerging as the singular swing factor behind the BJP’s massive win. CM Chouhan had promised to raise this amount to Rs 3,000 a month if re-elected.

The result also shows that across three states, the BJP regained lost tribal seats (in MP, the Congress had won 31 of the 47 ST seats in 2018 with the BJP winning most of these today) while managing to retain OBCs and first time votes. “Today’s BJP win is a win for every poor, every farmer, every deprived, every woman, youth and tribal,” the PM said, adding that every citizen who wanted to see a developed India was feeling victorious today. This was a vote for the pledge of developed, self-reliant India, said Modi. BJP chief JP Nadda said the results proved the country believed only in one guarantee—”Modi’s guarantee.” The verdicts further signalled the success of BJP’s poll strategy in three states—PM Modi’s appeal, micro booth management, government benefits for poor and deprived, special schemes for women, youth and farmers and careful messaging around Hindutva (Ram Mandir construction), national pride (success of G20 and Chandrayaan-3) and against corruption, appeasement and dynasties.

The results cement Modi’s ace campaigner image as the party had not projected any face in the three states. All eyes are now on who the CMs of the three states will be and whether it is the end of the road for CM Shivraj Chouhan in MP and ex-CMs Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Modi addressed 15 rallies and a road show in MP, 12 rallies in Rajasthan and six in Chhattisgarh and was the BJP’s principal face in the cow belt.

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