Most exit polls predict victory for BJP-led alliance in Maharashtra, Jharkhand
Most exit polls on Wednesday predicted a win for the ruling NDA in Maharashtra while giving it an edge over incumbent JMM-led INDIA bloc in Jharkhand.
Four of the seven exit polls said the incumbent BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP combine would retain power in the country’s richest state while three predicted a hung House. None forecast a win for the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) in Maharashtra.
In Jharkhand, of the six exit polls, three gave a clear edge to the NDA, with Axis My India the only one to predict the JMM-led alliance’s win. Two of these six exit polls said Jharkhand voters could return a hung verdict.
In Maharashtra, the average of seven polls placed the ruling Mahayuti above 150 seats in a House of 288 where 145 is the simple majority, while giving 126 to the opposition INDIA bloc.
Chanakya Strategies (152-160), Matrize (150-170), Times Now-JVC (150-167) and People’s Pulse (175-195) gave the NDA a clear victory in Maharashtra. P Marq, Lokshahi and Dainik Bhaskar, however, said the verdict would be hung.
In Jharkhand, where incumbent Chief Minister Hemant Soren-led INDIA coalition faced a tough electoral challenge from the BJP that made alleged illegal immigration in tribal heartland a key election issue, even promising to identify and deport every infiltrator, four of six exit polls favoured an NDA win. In the 81-member House, the simple majority is 41.
Matrize gave NDA seats in the range of 42 and 47; Chanakya Strategies 45-50; People’s Pulse 44-53 and Times Now-JVC 40-44. Axis My India stuck its neck out to say the incumbents would retain Jharkhand. It gave the NDA 25 seats and the JMM-led ruling bloc 53. Dainik Bhaskar and P Marq predicted a hung house in Jharkhand where the BJP contested 68 seats and its allies All Jharkhand Students Union 10; JD-U 2 and LJP 1.
On the ruling side, the JMM contested 41, Congress 30, RJD 6 and CPI (ML) 4.
In Maharashtra, the fate of several top leaders — Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT), his ex-colleague and CM Eknath Shinde, NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar of the NCP, and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis — is at stake.
In 2019, the BJP had contested 164 seats and won 105, posting the highest strike rate for any party in the state. The undivided Shiv Sena fought 124 and won 56. Shiv Sena, however, parted ways over chief minister-ship and its leader Uddhav stitched a post-poll alliance with Sharad Pawar’s undivided NCP and the Congress to form the government, which fell when Shinde split the Sena. Soon, Ajit Pawar also led a vertical division in the NCP.
The Congress in charge for Maharashtra, Ramesh Chennithala, rejected the exit polls and exuded confidence of an MVA win. Even overall, the Congress boycotted exit poll debates citing lack of credibility in data. Most exit pollsters had eaten their words on the recent Haryana poll results. Majority prediction was a Congress win, but the BJP ended up striking a hat-trick.
