India's monsoon shift: West gets wet, East dries out

The western parts of India will experience a significant increase in precipitation compared to most of the eastern and northeastern parts of the country in the period up to 2040 due to climate change, according to a new analysis.

The report comes at a time when countries are debating ways, at the UN climate conference in Azerbaijan, to raise trillions of dollars to help developing nations reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and adapt to climate change.

The southwest monsoon will see a shift from east to west, with the normally-drier western states experiencing higher precipitation, the analysis by the Azim Premji University said.

It said the southwest monsoon will bring more rain to the normally-drier western states. However, the eastern states, such as parts of the northeast, may experience reduced rainfall. This shift will further strain agricultural systems in these regions.

Gujarat and Rajasthan are projected to see significant increases in rainfall -- up to 40 per cent in the moderate-emissions scenario and up to 50 per cent in the high-emissions scenario in the 2021-2024 period as compared to the 1960 levels. This could lead to more flooding, soil erosion and decreased agricultural productivity.

The Indian Himalayas, from Kashmir to Arunachal Pradesh, will face less rainfall during the northeast monsoon. Some places like north Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh could see up to 15 per cent less rainfall.

During the northeast monsoon, many parts of the country will experience less rain, especially in the Indian Himalayas. However, states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka and parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Ladakh will see 20 per cent to 60 per cent more rainfall, with Gujarat receiving the most.

It is expected that more heavy rainfall in higher-altitude areas like Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh and the Western Ghats could cause problems, such as faster snowmelt, landslides and damage to crops and local economies.

Data also showed that the average annual maximum temperatures in India could rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius by mid-century, with faster increases under high-emissions scenarios.

Himalayan districts like Leh could see an increase of up to 1.8 degrees Celsius. Winters in Arunachal Pradesh might warm by 2.2 degrees Celsius, affecting crops that rely on cooler temperatures.

Coastal areas and parts of the eastern Himalayas may experience dangerous wet-bulb temperatures (above 31 degrees Celsius), significantly affecting health and labour productivity, the analysis said.