In Varanasi’s unequal contest, it’s down to Opposition unity

Sandeep Dikshit

Varanasi, May 25

Vox populi clustered around tea shops in the morning and late into the night in one of the most ancient temple towns in the country have been robbed of a major talking point – the chances of different candidates. The dominance of PM Narendra Modi as the candidate of the BJP for the third time running is now considered complete.

Can Oppn go beyond 3.5 lakh votes?

• The combined Opposition had polled around 3.5 lakh votes against PM Narendra Modi in 2014 and 2019
• Even a combined front would not have posed a challenge to the PM, who got 6.5 lakh votes in 2019 and 5.81 lakh in 2014
• There is no SP or AAP candidate this time, the parties are backing Congress’ Ajay Rai
• Of academic interest is whether the combined Opposition (minus the BSP) will breach its 3.5 lakh vote ceiling

This is in tune with the change in Varanasi’s laid-back character in which PM Modi has played the transformational role. The two-lane approach roads from Azamgarh, Sultanpur and Prayagraj that converge on Banaras are now old memories.

The waterfront around the ghats gives a stunning view during the ‘aarti’ in the evening and nothing can be done about the surge in traffic brought about by the outpouring of pilgrims after the Kashi corridor was determinedly pushed through by the Yogi-Modi combine in a city that had burst out of its seams and beyond.

But the elections here lack the vibrancy of the past when nearly every cycle at the state and national levels threw up a surprise winner. Veteran journalist and a “pukka Banarasi” Suphal Kumar ascribes several reasons that go beyond the domineering presence of PM Modi for the lukewarm response of the people towards electioneering.

“Parties would regularly hold worker-level meetings at block, tehsil and mohalla levels. I don’t think any party does that now. Second, many cadre-based parties have emasculated. Third, many regional chieftains who became national leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati would tour the state year round. Their political successors do not seem to be as energetic,” reasons Suphal.

The extended region of Varanasi, extending into Azamgarh and Ghazipur, was once known for people’s movements and a tradition of deep political ferment, secular impulses and intellectual thought. It once elected a Parsi, Rustam Satin, as the MLA from Varanasi South; a Muslim Shafiur Rahman Ansari as its Mayor and CPM’s Satya Narain Singh as its MP.

The absence of a BJP workers’ generated buzz is explained by Suphal with the peaking of the party’s campaign with the Ram Mandir’s inauguration in January and a general sense of exhaustion with the long drawn out elections in which Varanasi votes in the last phase on June 1.

“It is not possible to keep up the tempo for so many months. The dullness is also because BJP leaders feel the elections are all but sewn up,” he adds.

Yet, a political challenge — even if symbolic — is being mounted. “The polling in Varanasi will be a test of INDI alliance’s cohesiveness,” reckons Sanjay Asthana, writer and academic, resting at his home buried deep in the labyrinths of the old city. The combined Opposition had polled around 3.5 lakh votes against PM Narendra Modi in 2014 and 2019. A combined challenge would have posed no challenge to the 6.5 lakh votes for PM Modi in 2019 riding a Balakot strike wave and 5.81 lakh in 2014 despite a spirited challenge by Arvind Kejriwal.

There is no SP and AAP this time, both of whom are backing the Congress’ Ajay Rai. Of academic interest is whether the combined Opposition (minus the BSP) will breach its 3.5 lakh vote ceiling. Such has been Modi’s impact on the city’s fortunes that in a city known for its contrarians, charges of authoritarianism do not stick after the rejection of comedian Shyam Rangila’s nomination. “We know he was not serious and was doing it for publicity. Things would have been different had the nomination of Atahar Jamal Lari (BSP candidate) or Ajai Rai been cancelled,” says a local Sumit Rai, though he also suggests that the cancellation showed the power of the administration.

But the makeover of Varanasi has given so many employment and business opportunities all the way down the economic ladder that chances of Narendra Modi’s victory is a foregone conclusion.