Importance of upcoming Assembly elections to 5 states, why BJP and Congress are taking extra precaution

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, October 2

If reports and source-based information is an indication then the two main players—BJP and Congress—are burning the midnight oil to prepare perfect winning combinations to outsmart each other in the upcoming Assembly elections to five key states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.

Two (three, if Rajasthan is also counted) are the traditional Hindi heartland states which form the crux of the politics of the two main players in three of these states —BJP and Congress.

Announcement of candidates    

These elections are crucial for both the parties and they want to be completely sure and satisfied before making any announcement of the names of candidates. Sources say the Election Commission is expected to announce the dates for the election to the five Assemblies in the coming few days.      

According to sources, the Congress leadership is taking extra care in finalising and announcing candidates for the three Hindi heartland states unlike Karnataka where it had finalised names of candidates much in advance.

“Congress is in power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and has to tackle several tricky issues. The decision can be expected only after all information and feedback is collated. The leadership is gathering more feedback from the ground. Some initial surveys found the performance of many ministers and MLAs in Rajasthan not up to the mark and the leadership may not give tickets to these leaders,” explains a Congress leader.

However, things are not as simple as they appear. Observers say that those who do not get the ticket will try other avenues—a situation which both the Congress and the BJP want to avoid. 

“For Congress, the situation is more difficult than BJP in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. If nomination is denied to ministers and sitting MLAs there obviously will be rebellion. To avoid the possibility of senior leaders turning rebels, there has to be a concrete strategy in place. Delaying the announcement of candidates is one such tactic,” say observers.   

MP-like strategy for BJP

Meanwhile, according to sources, the saffron party may launch Members of Parliament and ministers in Rajasthan.

The BJP released a list of 21 candidates for the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly in August on seats perceived to be tough to give the nominees sufficient elbow room to prepare and campaign.

In Madhya Pradesh also, the ruling BJP has declared candidates for 79 seats for the polls to the 230-member Assembly.

While its first list of 39 names in August also included “difficult seats”, the second list of 39 names held nuanced messages for party leaders and cadres across the country with many surprises.

The ruling party fielded three Union ministers, four MPs and a national general secretary in the state where it has been in power for more than two decades and is now facing a tough competition from its main rival—the Congress. Sources say it is expected to follow the MP-pattern, at least in Rajasthan. 

Political importance of Hindi heartland

The Hindi heartland supports a sizable population concentrated along the Ganga plains of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar.

While this is the technical description of Hindi heartland, the broader definition includes other states where the population speaks dialects close to Hindi like Rajasthan and Haryana.

In many of these states, BJP and Congress are in direct conflict.

While in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar there are regional satraps like Samajwadi Party, BSP, RJD, JD-U etc; in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh there are some small caste-based players which may not win many seats but can spoil the chances of others.

For example in Chhattisgarh, the main fight is for tribal votes or the seats reserved for STs. Here is where the relevance of parties like Janta Congress Chhattisgarh or Hamar Raj Party comes in.

Likewise, in Rajasthan there is Rashtriya Loktantrik Party founded by former BJP leader and Nagaur MP Hanuman Beniwal and Gondwana Gantantra Party in the Gwalior-Chambal region.

While in elections, each seat matters, with 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, 25 in Rajasthan and 11 in Chhattisgarh, the upcoming Assembly polls will give the pulse of the people on as many as 65 constituencies.

Along with 17 Lok Sabha seats of Telangana and one in Mizoram, observers say the upcoming Assembly elections will set the perceptions on as many as 83 Lok Sabha seats in five states.