IMD forecasts milder winter, fewer cold wave days

India is set to experience a milder winter with fewer cold wave days, the weather office said on Monday and forecast above-normal minimum temperatures during the season.

The forecast of a relatively warmer winter came after the country experienced the second warmest November since 1901, with the average maximum temperature clocking 29.37 degrees Celsius -- 0.623 degree above the normal of 28.75 degrees for the season.

“During the upcoming winter season (December 2024 to February 2025), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told reporters here.

According to the forecast, the winter season was expected to witness fewer cold wave days than the normal of five to six.

During the season, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except most areas over south Peninsular India, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely, he said.

“Normally, we see five to six cold wave days during December to February over the cold core zone, which includes the northwest, central, east and northeast India. This year, we can expect two to four fewer cold wave days compared to average,” Mohapatra said.

According to the IMD, a cold wave is considered if the minimum temperature (T-min) is less than the 10th percentile of the daily climatological value and the climatological daily T-min is less than 15 degrees Celsius. These conditions should be observed for three consecutive days for it to qualify as one cold wave event.

Mohapatra said the absence of western disturbances was the reason for a warmer November.