BJP's strategic shift: How political compulsion brought Vasundhara Raje back to the ‘helm’ in Rajasthan

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, October 28

There appears to be a marked change in the BJP’s strategy for the Rajasthan Assembly elections.

The saffron party may not have declared former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje as its official candidate but sources claim that the leadership has “managed to send a message” among cadres and voters that she is the “number one contender” for the job in case it wins.

Notably, after being named in the second list of candidates, Raje expressed gratitude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president JP Nadda for “reposing faith” in her.

“I wish to express my heartfelt gratitude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP national president JP Nadda and the top leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for reposing faith in me and making me the assembly candidate from Jhalrapatan. Together, we will post a record victory, Jai-Jai Rajasthan!” Raje posted on the social media following nomination from her preferred constituency.

After her name was not announced in the first list, the speculation was that she had been “sidelined/ cut-to-size”.

Raje and the few among BJP’s regional satraps      

Counted among the tallest leaders of Rajasthan, the fact is Raje has never been on the best of terms with the BJP’s central leadership since 2014. Sources, however, say the party did not want to make the “mistake” it had in the case of Karnataka by sidelining BS Yeddiyurappa—its tallest leader in the southern state.

“Raje is among the few regional strong leaders of stature that BJP currently has. Unlike former Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh and Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, she has managed to hold her own against adversaries in centre,” they add

State leaders claim that after she was declared the candidate, things seem to be “settling” in favour of the BJP in Rajasthan. The message that Raje was neither leading the campaign nor a CM contender seems to be diluting.

Notably, in the first list the party fielded as many as seven MPs, which was seen as an attempt to “undermine Raje”. Absence of Raje’ loyalists like Narpat Singh Rajvi and fielding of MPs, however resulted in widespread rebellion and protests.

“By fielding seven MPs, the BJP appeared to send the signal that it was taking the elections seriously and that state leaders need to prove their worth/merit on the ground, especially those who were elected to the Lok Sabha riding on the popularity of PM Modi. However, when reports of protests and rebellion started pouring from many places, including Deoli-Uniara where BJP fielded Vijay Bainsla, son of Gujjar leader Kirori Singh Bainsla, the central leaders may have decided to give more prominence to Raje,” they say  

According to observers, protests like this were not common in BJP, a reason why Raje is ‘majboori’ (compulsion) as well as ‘zaroori’ (necessity) for the party.

In Jhotwara supporters of Rajpal Shekhawat showed black flags to former Union minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, who is contesting from the seat.

Change of tack  

The sources say that the state’s “day-to-day reporting or say routine matters and decisions” are with party chief Nadda who perhaps doesn’t want a repeat of Himachal Pradesh in Rajasthan. “Earlier, there was speculation that Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat will be fielded, who will then be the number one candidate for the top job.

In Madhya Pradesh, BJP’s list includes Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar and his colleagues in the central council, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste.

Rajasthan’s political equations falling in place

Broadly the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly will see a direct fight between the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP

The state generally alternates between the two parties, but there are other players in the field as well. In 2018, the Congress won 100 seats, BJP 73, BSP six, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) three, CPM and Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) two each and RLD one. 

Besides them, there were also 13 Independents.

The opposition Congress formed the government in what was a tough fight with the ruling BJP.

Currently, both the Congress and the BJP are dealing with multiple issues—factionalism, internal strife, etc.

While the Congress is also dealing with the anti-incumbency factor, the BJP appears to have ruffled many a feathers by “ignoring rightful claim of those working hard on the ground for five years for the day”, a reason why it does not want to take any more chances.

“Though the main contest is between the Congress and the BJP, smaller players have the capability of acting as spoilers, a reason why the saffron party has allied with the Karni Sena,” observers add.

Also, this time, RLP has allied with the Azad Samaj Party (ASP).

RLP chief and Nagaur MP Hanuman Beniwal and ASP’s Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan announced they will jointly contest all the seats.

Beniwal has managed to make his presence felt in the Lok Sabha despite being the only member from his party in the House

He is also contesting Assembly elections.

Beniwal was suspended from the BJP in 2013 after he accused senior BJP leaders like Raje of “corruption” and having “connections with Congress leaders” and later launched his own political outfit.