Bihar caste survey: What it means for Indian politics and parties ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, October 3

Just a couple of days before the Supreme Court hears a bunch of pleas challenging Patna High Court’s order on Bihar caste survey, the Nitish Kumar government on Monday released the findings of the much-awaited documentation of castes in the state.

The report, symbolically released on the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi and significantly on the eve of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has the potential to reshape election strategies of political parties

According to the survey, OBCs and EBCs constitute a whopping 63% of Bihar’s population while Yadavs comprise the largest chunk of the 27.13 % OBC population in the state.

SC to hear pleas on October 6

According to observers, apart from it being the birth anniversary of Gandhi, the aim of releasing the report on Monday was perhaps also to preempt the Apex Court’s hearing.

The Supreme Court will hear a bunch of pleas pertaining to the Bihar caste census on October 6, according to reports.

Several petitions have been filed quoting issues like privacy. A contention also is that the notification issued by the state government for the exercise was against the constitutional mandate, according to which only the Union government was empowered to conduct such an exercise.

Coming on the eve of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the survey is expected to impact political parties beyond Bihar, say observers. “Whatever the parties may claim, the fact is tickets are distributed according to caste combinations, especially in rural India. The caste cauldron affects the politics of India more in rural areas than people living in urban parts of the country realise or accept,” they add.

The report

Now, the report released by the Bihar government headed by JD-U’s Nitish Kumar (who belongs to the Kurmi OBC category) and RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav (a Yadav), states that OBCs and EBCs constitute a whopping 63 % of the population in the state.

According to the data, the state’s total population is around 13.07 crore of which the Extremely Backward Classes are around 36 % making it the largest social segment, followed by the Other Backward Classes (27.13%).

Castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, Kushwahas, etc come under the OBC category.

Yadavs account for 14.27 % of OBCs, Dalits (Scheduled Castes) 19.65 % and Scheduled Tribes 1.68 %.

The population of the Kushwaha caste is 4.21% and Kurmis 2.87%.

“Upper Castes”, who dominated politics till the Mandal wave in 1990s, comprise 15.52 % of the population.

Interestingly, and contrary to general perceptions, the survey established that Bihar’s population is largely Hindu (81.99 %) followed by Muslims (17.7 %).

“There seems to be a drop in the number of Hindus vis-a-vis Muslims but not as much as is being portrayed by right wing sympathisers. Also the population of OBC is much lower than what was estimated by the Mandal Commission,” according to observers.

The population of general or ‘swaran jatis’ or “upper caste” groups is 15.52%.

Numerically Brahmins are the highest in thegrouping (3.65%) followed by Rajputs (3.45%) and Bhumihars (2.86%).

From the last caste census conducted in 1931 by the British, the population of OBC-EBC groups has seen a 10% jump, as per reports.

However, the 1931 census was conducted in the then undivided India which included present-day Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Its implications

RJD president Lalu Prasad said the exercise would set the tone for a nationwide caste census which will be undertaken “when the INDIA coalition forms the next government at the Centre.”

Notably, “Mandal parties” JD-U and RJD are also the key constituents of the INDIA formation which has affirmed commitment to holding a caste census if it comes to power

Apart from ‘Mandal’ parties (JD-U, RJD, SP, DMK etc), the Congress and Left are also firmly behind such the exercise to counter BJP’s political successes, especially in the 2019 elections and more so in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections which proved that BJP is not just enjoyingsupport from ‘swaran jatis’ but is also gaining political strength among SCs, STs and OBCs.

Interestingly, JD-U and RJD leaders claimed that those filing petitions against caste census were “BJP supporters”, acharge denied by the saffron party.

According to the supporters of the caste census, a new estimate is required to establish the exact number of weaker sections (which have seen a rise in their population) and establish theirrightful share.

‘Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari’

Observers say dealing with the new situation requiresa certain political deftness and strategic finesse, especially by BJP, and more so ahead of 2024 general elections.

“Its implications go beyond Bihar and its 40 Lok Sabha seats where it has set the stage for a head-on with so-called upper castes, Brahmins, Thakurs/Rajputs etc, Given the intricate caste dynamics in India, BJP may face challenges in maintaining and expanding its electoral base.

“Not just in Bihar, BJP may need to walk an extra mile to court smaller caste-based parties outside NDA. BSP’s Mayawati may gain politically from BJP given her support in specific SC segments. Mayawati’s influence has the potentialto impact BJP’s electoral strategy in states like Bihar and UP,” say observers.

Sources say the state leadership has urged Home Minister Amit Shah to address the Rohini Commission’s recommendations regarding the equitable allocation of reservation quotas among OBCs and EBCs in government jobs.

The Rohini Commission, which was set up for the sub-categorisation of OBCs, has submitted its report to the President.

Observers say the BJP can use its implementation to counter the Opposition’s political narrative of “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, ski utni hissedari (Greater the population, greater are the rights)” and consolidate support amongst OBCs.

However, it is a double-edged sword given that it would also mean moving away from the original plan—consolidating caste groups with ‘Hindutva’ and nationalism—and antagonizing the original vote base

Rohini Commission

The primary objective of the commission was to formulate the method, basis, and criteria for a fair distribution of benefits among the OBCs which account for 41% (according to National Sample Survey Office) and 52 % (as per the Mandal Commission).

According to the reports, there are more than 2,600 subcastes in the Central List of OBCs, and the general perception is that only a handful of caste groups have reaped the benefit of existing reservation quotas in the country.