Tribune Analysis: What to expect from Narendra Modi government 3.0

Vibha Sharma

New Delhi, June 6

Barely hours after announcing support to the BJP, ally Janata Dal (United) on Thursday advocated a “rethink on the Agnipath scheme to induct soldiers into the Indian Armed Forces”.

JD (U) spokesperson KC Tyagi was quoted as saying that “there is need to have a fresh rethink on the Agnipath scheme. After the scheme (announced in June 2022) there has been unhappiness. I suppose their families vent out their anger in the recent Lok Sabha election”.

If a change in the scheme is effected by the new government, it will be one of the rare moments in the past 10 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Earlier, his decision to repeal the three contentious farm laws in the second tenure and rollback on the land acquisition bill in the first tenure were largely due to opposition from farmers.

Dynamics of opposition parties

It has been some time, 10 years in fact, since India has had a coalition government, the last being after the 2009 general elections when the Congress-led UPA formed the government under Manmohan Singh. Those who voted for the first time in 2024 have mostly seen Narendra Modi running a majority government backed by a brute majority.

However, as he prepares for his third tenure, albeit with a smaller mandate, he will have to rely on coalition partners for the first time as Prime Minister. Though according to political observers “less political space will not cramp his style of functioning either on the domestic front or in foreign policy space, he may have to strike compromises, also put on hold some agenda shortlisted for the third tenure to keep allies in sync”.

The question is will he also concede to JD(U)’s caste-based census demand.

Or will the BJP agree to reservation for Muslims and put on the backburner the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) given that the allies are also demanding “discussions with all stakeholders”.

Observers say the BJP’s individual Lok Sabha numbers may delay some far-reaching political, economic and fiscal decisions but the government’s spending on infrastructure and boosting domestic manufacturing is expected to continue. The final Budget for the fiscal will set the tone for the government’s fiscal policy till the 2029 Lok Sabha election.

More room for allies, opposition  

Political analysts are anticipating nuanced changes in governance and a more inclusive and pliable NDA government for the first couple of years.

“The fact is alliances, like any relationship, are based on give and take. Even in a coalition a party is autonomous and free to use its numbers to manipulate and get what it wants. This will also hold true whether it is the Telugu Desam Party’s N Chandrababu Naidu or Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar. They are also free to exit the NDA anytime they want,” they add.