INDIA VOTES 2024: Exit polls predict no clear winner in Punjab

Ruchika M Khanna & Rajmeet Singh

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, June 1

In multi-cornered contests on most of the 13 Lok Sabha seats of Punjab that went to the polls today, there appears to be no clear winner, according to the exit poll results for the state released late today.

While two of the biggest survey agencies — Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya — have predicted that the BJP will double its tally in the poll — from two in 2019 to four now, they have also predicted a big win for the Congress, predicting that the party will get four to nine seats.

In both surveys, Shiromani Akali Dal is predicted as having been pushed to the brink.

However, the exit poll by Matrize is predicting that AAP will get maximum six seats in the state, Akali Dal could get four, Congress three and BJP two.

Given the spectrum predicted by these exit polls, one thing is clear — the BJP, hounded by the farmer unions throughout the campaign — seems to have consolidated the non-Jat votes — both Hindus and Dalits.

In two of these surveys, two seats have been given to “Others”, leaving the people of the state guessing whether Khadoor Sahib seat could go to jailed Sikh activist Amritpal Singh. These predictions — which might not turn out to be true when the final results are announced on Tuesday and are only indicative of the polling trend — also show that the Congress is on the rebound, if it increases its poll tally to nine. But if it falls to three or four, it would mean that the party’s urban Hindu vote has shifted to the BJP, and that the taint of corruption during its rule in 2017-22, which the AAP has been rubbing in, has stuck to the party.

After its poll debacle in 2022, the grand old party is hoping to revive its political fortunes. The party’s strength in the Assembly elections had fallen from 77 seats in 2017 Vidhan Sabha poll to 18 in 2022 elections.

Surprisingly, as the Modi wave had taken over the voters’ consciousness during the 2019 parliamentary elections, the Congress, under the then Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh, won eight of the 13 Lok Sabha seats.

For the Akali Dal, this election is a battle for its political survival. Ever since 2017, when the party lost the elections to the Congress, it has suffered many electoral losses. The exit polls show the party remains in the woods. For the ruling AAP, which stormed to power in 2022 winning 92 of 117 Assembly seats, the win at 2-6 seats (as predicted in the surveys), if true, could trigger a lot of changes in the government, especially as this election is being considered as a litmus test for the ruling party in the state, as well as for the state AAP chief and CM Bhagwant Mann. The latter, has, however, rejected the outcome of the survey. 

Anandpur Sahib Voter turnout 60%
Peaceful polling in five-cornered contest

Over 60 per cent voting was recorded in the Anandpur Sahib parliamentary constituency, which is witnessing a five-cornered contest. The polling remained largely peaceful. Malwinder Singh Kang (AAP), Vijay Inder Singla (Congress), Prem Singh Chandumajra (SAD), Dr Subhash Sharma (BJP) and Jasvir Singh Garhi (BSP) are the five major candidates in the fray here. The Rupnagar Assembly segment recorded the highest voter turnout of 58.13 per cent, followed by Garhshankar (56 per cent), Nawanshahr (54.40 per cent), Kharar (51 per cent) and SAS Nagar (48 per cent) till 5 pm. “No booth of the Congress, BJP, Akali Dal or any other party, except AAP, in 19 villages of Anandpur Sahib, including my village Gambhirpur,” tweeted AAP leader Harjot Bains. The post was retweeted by AAP candidate Kang. — Gaurav Kanthwal

Amritsar Voter turnout 54%
Election fails to excite voters in holy city

There was lukewarm response to voting in Amritsar and just 54.02 per cent turnout was recorded. The constituency is witnessing a four-cornered contest between the Congress’ Gurjeet Singh Aujla, BJP’s Taranjit Singh Sandhu, AAP’s Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal and SAD’s Anil Joshi.

Residents of Lakhowal village in Ajnala gave a boycott call to the elections following the murder of an AAP worker, Deep Inder Singh, on Friday evening. Only three votes were polled in booth numbers 73 and 74.

Overall, the Ajnala Assembly segment witnessed the highest voting percentage and the lowest percentage was witnessed in the Amritsar West constituency. The rural constituencies recorded better voting percentage than the urban constituencies. Attari registered 54.80 per cent polling and Majitha 54.60 per cent. — GS Paul

Bathinda Voter turnout 67%
Only 5% polling in Ahmedpur village

The polling in the Bathinda parliamentary constituency remained largely peaceful, barring a few incidents of chaos. A clash reportedly broke out between farmers and BJP workers at Nandgarh Kotra village in Bathinda. The police and the CRPF were deployed there after the incident.

Tension was also palpable in Ahmedpur village of Budhlada over the non-arrest of a double murder accused. On January 10 this year, village elders Jangir Singh and Ranjit Kaur were murdered, but their killers were still out of the police net. Assistant Returning Officer-cum-Budhlada SDM Gagandeep Singh said there were around 3,600 votes in the village, but only around 170 votes (5 per cent) were polled. The total voter turnout across the constituency was 67.97 per cent. — Sukhmeet Bhasin

Hoshiarpur Voter turnout 58.1%
Congress worker attacked, injured

The Hoshiarpur (reserved) Lok Sabha seat recorded a low turnout of 58.10 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections held on Saturday. The Sri Hargobindpur segment got the least turnout of just 44.56 pc. Bholath, too, was at a low of 47.5 per cent. The maximum voter turnout was in Hoshiarpur, Dasuya and Mukerian segments where Hindu voters dominate and could add to the advantage of the BJP candidate.

There were 19 candidates in fray from the seat. A triangular contest was witnessed here among Aam Aadmi Party’s Dr Raj Kumar Chabbewal, Congress’ Yamini Gomar and BJP’s Anita Som Parkash, wife of Union MoS Som Parkash. A clash was reported at Hariana area falling in Sham Churasi segment where a Congress worker was reportedly attacked by AAP workers. He suffered injuries on his head and left arm. — Deepkamal Kaur

Jalandhar Voter turnout 59.1%
4.5% higher turnout than 2023 bypoll

Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat saw a rise of just about 4.5 per cent from the turnout in May 2023 bypoll. While it was 54.5 per cent last year, it was 59.1 per cent this time.

Jalandhar North segment reported the highest voter turnout percentage while Jalandhar Central had the least. In terms of number of voters, the maximum of 1.11 lakh votes were polled in Phillaur while the least turnout was in Adampur of about 96,700 voters.

The fate of 26 candidates from Jalandhar got sealed on Saturday with the main candidates being former CM and Congress candidate Charanjit S Channi, AAP’s Pawan Tinu, BJP’s Sushil Rinku, SAD’s MS Kaypee and BSP’s Balwinder Kumar. Three minor clashes were reported in Jalandhar between booth workers at Adampur, Goraya and Jalandhar West segments. — Deepkamal Kaur

Fatehgarh Sahib Voter turnout 61.1%
Urban voters show more enthusiasm

The voting for the Fatehgarh Sahib Lok Sabha seat went off peacefully and no untoward incident was reported even at any of the sensitive or hypersensitive booths on Saturday.

Urban voters showed more enthusiasm for voting than those in rural areas. The constituency witnessed a four-cornered contest among Congress candidate Dr Amar Singh, AAP’s Gurpreet Singh GP, BJP’s Geja Ram Valmiki and SAD’s Bikram Singh Khalsa.

In all, 61.18 per cent polling was recorded in the constituency. The highest turnout was recorded in the Raikot and Fatehgarh Sahib Assembly segments.

District Election Officer Parneet Shergill and SSP Dr Ravjot Grewal thanked the voters for maintaining peace during the voting. — Surinder Bhardwaj

Patiala Voter turnout 62.4%
Litmus test for royal scion Preneet Kaur

Polling remained largely peaceful, barring a few minor EVM glitches. Patiala parliamentary constituency is considered a Congress citadel, but a four-cornered contest is on the cards.

AAP MLA Neena Mittal sparked a controversy early, by posting a video of herself on social media showing her voting for party candidate Dr Balbir Singh — she quickly got a notice. Then, Congress candidate Dr Dharamvira Gandhi released a video accusing his opponents of circulating fake messages. It was his birthday so he celebrated it at various booths. BJP candidate Preneet Kaur missed her husband and the former Patiala maharaja Capt Amarinder Singh’s presence — he is said to be ill in Delhi and did not vote. Mohali realtor and two-time SAD MLA NK Sharma is seen as a “dark horse”, eager to make his debut in the Lok Sabha. — Aman Sood

Ferozepur Voter turnout 65.9%
BSP nominee booked for making voting video

In Ferozepur, AAP and Congress workers clashed in Kohala in Mallanwala block, BSP candidate Surinder Kamboj was booked after he made a video of himself while casting his vote at Jiwa Arain village and at booth number 53, AAP MLA Ranbir Bhullar came face to face with Anumit Singh Sodhi (son of BJP candidate Rana Sodhi).

The big question here is whether SAD will be able to maintain its six-term winning streak. The polling percentage in Ferozepur Urban, considered a BJP stronghold remained low at 50.1 per cent. In Ferozepur Rural where SAD and AAP have a strong base, voting was recorded at 58 per cent. In Guruharsahai, 61.3 per cent votes were polled, in Fazilka 64.94 per cent, in Jalalabad 60.3 per cent, in Balluana 57.5 per cent, in Malout 57.1 per cent, in Muktsar 57.88 per cent and in Abohar 51.5 per cent. — Anirudh Gupta

Ludhiana Voter turnout 57.1%
Die is cast, Warring, Bittu’s fate sealed

Despite an intense heat wave — it was 46°C in Ludhiana today — the constituency saw 53.8 per cent polling. But barring minor scuffles and some heated exchanges, no case of violence, booth capturing or bogus voting was reported.

A triangular contest is on the cards. Congress candidate Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, three-time Gidderbaha MLA and former Transport Minister fight is up against former partyman and now BJP candidate Ravneet Bittu (its a “war against a traitor”), while AAP’s sitting first-time MLA, Ashok Parashar Pappi is giving both Bittu & Warring a tough fight. The highest turnout of almost 65 per cent — recorded in his own Assembly segment Ludhiana Central — has boosted Pappi’s chances. Ludhiana South was lowest at 57 per cent at 6 pm. — Nitin Jain

Gurdaspur Voter turnout 64.6%
Contest will go down to the wire here

The constituency is seeing a four-cornered contest, which observers say will go down to the wire. In the fray are former Deputy Chief Minister and four-time MLA Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa (Congress), former Ropar MLA and Cabinet minister Daljit Singh Cheema (SAD), who during the last one month fought hard to discard the ‘outsider’ tag, Batala sitting MLA Amansher Singh Sherry Kalsi (AAP) and three-time ex-Sujanpur MLA Dinesh Singh Babbu (BJP).

Randhawa was the first to be off the blocks when he and his wife, Jatinder Kaur, cast their vote in a government school in his native village of Dharowali around 8 am. Cheema does not have a vote here. Kalsi and Babbu, too, had exercised their franchise at their designated polling stations before 10 am. — Ravi Dhaliwal

POLL SNIPPETS

FIR against AAP halqa incharge

Gurdaspur: The police have registered an FIR against Balbir Singh Pannu, AAP halqa incharge and Chairman of Punsup, on a complaint filed by Kulwinder Singh Bajwa, election agent of SAD candidate Daljit Singh Cheema. The FIR has been registered at the Kila Lal Singh police station. The complainant has alleged that Pannu had forcibly entered the polling station without having the credentials to do so.

AAP, Cong, SAD set up common party stall

Muktsar: Residents of Sher Singh Chowk area in Muktsar town on Saturday set an example of brotherhood by setting up a common party stall of three main political parties — AAP, Congress and SAD. Jagjot Singh, Gurdyal Singh and Sherbaj Singh, activists of these three political parties, said that they had set up common polling booth to keep their brotherhood intact. BJP activists, however, did not join them.

Chandumajra, Capt fail to cast vote

Patiala: SAD candidate from Anandpur Sahib, Prem Singh Chandumajra, did not come to Patiala to cast his vote. As he was busy contesting the poll and visiting the booths in his constituency, Chandumajra skipped voting in Patiala. The second big leader, Capt Amarinder Singh of the BJP, also did not turn up for voting, here over health issues. Talking to the media, his son said the former CM is battling health issues.

Manpreet comes in jeep to cast vote

Badal: BJP leader and former Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal, who has mostly stayed away from election campaign due to his poor health, on Saturday drove to the polling station at Badal village in his “all-time” favourite Jeep. Manpreet, who has a number of vintage Jeeps and bikes in his stable, said: “This is my all-time favourite Jeep, 35 years old now. This ‘purana loha’ (old iron) is my love.”

Armymen vote in large numbers

Ferozepur: Thousands of Army jawans besides senior officials, non-gazetted officers and other ranks came out in large numbers here in Cantonment to exercise their franchise. Since early morning, long queues of men in “olive green” were seen outside the booths of Ferozepur Urban Assembly segment. A total of 8,395 Army voters were registered on the voters’ lists at these polling booths.

Lakhowal village boycotts LS poll

Amritsar: Residents of Lakhowal village in this Lok Sabha constituency boycotted the elections on Saturday to protest killing of AAP worker Deep Inder Singh, alias Deepu Lakhowalia, on Friday night. He was sitting along with his supporters when two armed assailants opened fire at him. He suffered multiple gunshot injuries in the firing that also left four others injured.