INDIA VOTES 2024: 16 seats, western Uttar Pradesh looks to set the tone

Neeraj Mohan in Uttar Pradesh

With 16 parliamentary seats, the sprawling expanse of western Uttar Pradesh plays a pivotal role in not only the political landscape of the state, but also in influencing the trajectory of national politics.

Encompassing the Braj and Rohilkhand regions, 15 constituencies are slated to go to polls in the first two phases on April 19 and 26; polling for one seat is scheduled for May 7. The intricate interplay of caste equations, religious affiliations and developmental agendas underscores the complexity of its political terrain.

The ubiquitous presence of sugarcane juice vendors along the highways signifies the economic vibrancy of the region. Sugarcane not only sustains the agrarian economy, but also supports ancillary industries, including sugar mills and jaggery units.

In Rohilkhand, the substantial Muslim population holds sway over the political dynamics, with their demographic significance influencing the strategies of political parties. Western UP is home to 72.29 per cent Hindu and 26.21 per cent Muslim population.

Caste affiliations further complicate the political landscape, with divisions among upper castes, OBCs and SCs. Political alliances remain fluid. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress have joined forces, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has sprung a surprise by forging an alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a member of the Opposition INDIA bloc till recently, with an eye on the Jat voters, who have a dominating presence.

The electoral battleground is set for an intense and keenly-fought contest, particularly in constituencies with a sizeable Muslim population — Rampur, Moradabad, Kairana, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Sambhal, Meerut, Baghpat, Bijnor, Aligarh, Nagina (SC) and Amroha.

The BJP’s electoral strategy here hinges on development, law and order, crackdown on gangsters and timely payment to sugarcane farmers with a hike in the Fair and Remunerative Price. Infrastructure development has been a focal point, with upgraded highways, railway lines and improved electricity supply underpinning the BJP’s governance narrative.

An additional advantage is the image of Yogi Adityanath as a bold Chief Minister. He has garnered praise for his focus on law enforcement, infrastructure upgradation and social welfare. “The common man feels safe. This is the biggest achievement of the government as our daughters and sisters can step out fearlessly even at night,” says Pala Singh, a cane juice vendor who migrated to Kairana from Moga (Punjab) in 1984.

The BJP has not only forged an alliance with Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD, but also bestowed the country’s top honour, the Bharat Ratna, on his grandfather and former Prime Minister, the late Chaudhary Charan Singh, to garner support from the farmers. However, challenges persist in consolidating support, especially among the Jat community, as a section of the RLD leadership and grassroot workers are not happy with the move to join hands with the BJP in the aftermath of the year-long farmers’ agitation, and the electoral defeat of Jayant’s father, the late Ajit Singh, by BJP’s Sanjeev Balyan in Muzaffarnagar in 2019.

The region’s agrarian landscape is characterised by activism. Anger persists in the Jat community against the BJP-led Union government for mishandling of the farmers’ agitation and over complaints against the BJP MP and former Wrestling Federation of India chief, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, in a sexual harassment complaint by women Jat wrestlers from Haryana.

The BJP had performed well in western UP in the 2022 Assembly polls largely due to its emphasis on women’s safety. However, there is concern that the allegations against Brij Bhushan could undermine the goodwill earned through governance initiatives.

Despite communal tensions, western UP witnessed a surge in BJP’s electoral fortunes in 2014. The party swept the Lok Sabha elections months after the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013 and won all 16 Lok Sabha seats. The Saharanpur riots in 2016 highlighted the fragile social fabric.

The BJP formed the state government under Yogi Adityanath with a thumping majority in 2017, but in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party had to suffer a setback and lost seven out of the 16 seats in the western region. The Bahujan Samaj Party and the SP-RLD alliance posed a considerable challenge. Following the consolidation of votes between the Muslims and Jats, the BJP faced defeat in most Muslim-dominated seats.

“The politics of this region revolves around the Jats and Muslims. Since the Muslims have opted for an anti-BJP stand, if a section of Jats also votes for the same candidate, this could create trouble for the BJP-RLD combine,” says Zakir Hussain, a farmer from Saharanpur. The BJP-RLD alliance aims to consolidate Jat votes, while the SP-Congress alliance seeks to tap into Muslim votes.

The BSP’s decision to go it alone poses a threat to the SP-Congress alliance if it manages to split Muslim votes since BSP chief Mayawati has fielded a majority of Muslim candidates in western UP. As a voter, Noor Mohammad of Muzaffarnagar, observes, “Mayawati’s decision proves that she wants to split Muslim votes and this would help the BJP.”

Almost all the seats are set to witness keen contests, with the SP-Congress candidates locked in a direct fight with the BJP-RLD nominees, especially in Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, Meerut, Baghpat and Mathura. The key contenders include Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan and veteran actress Hema Malini. They are seeking their third terms from Muzaffarnagar and Mathura, respectively. Kunwar Danish Ali (the former BSP MP who recently joined the Congress), Imran Masood of Congress and Iqra Hasan of SP are trying their political fortunes from Amroha, Saharanpur and Kairana, respectively.

The BJP’s top leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, along with CM Yogi Adityanath, have launched an intensive campaign with the hope that the momentum built here may help the party create a positive atmosphere in the entire UP, which has the highest 80 Lok Sabha seats. Their speeches have focused on construction of Ram Temple in Ayodhya. The party has strategically fielded ‘Ramayana’ actor Arun Govil from Meerut, extending the narrative surrounding the politics of Hindutva.

However, the top leadership of the Opposition parties is still missing from the scene. “The BJP has some weak points and it is up to the Opposition parties to take advantage. They have not even launched their campaign with full gusto yet,” says Jagatvir Sirohi, state president of the Akhil Bhartiya Jat Aarakshan Sangharsh Samiti.