India needs to recalibrate strategy on China

EveN as China is going all out to pursue its expansionist agenda, including flexing economic muscles, the China-US rivalry — which got accentuated during the Trump regime — is continuing under the Biden administration. The Russia-Ukraine war, in its fifth month, has created new fault-lines. India-China relations are also undergoing severe stress. Attempts by our PM to woo President Xi Jinping by creating personal rapport, part of an armoury of diplomatic overtures which have gone well for India in its relationships with other countries, have almost failed. In this case, the outreach has boomeranged.

The conflict reached a flashpoint when Chinese soldiers ingressed all along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh in April-May 2020. The events thereafter have worsened bilateral relations, particularly the violent clash in the Galwan valley in June that year when 20 Indian soldiers, including the Commanding Officer, made the supreme sacrifice. This was followed by large-scale mobilisation by both sides, which is continuing even now. The current stand-off also gave the Indian Army its ‘Kailash Range’ moment when dominating positions were captured by India in a surprise move in August 2020, catching the Chinese forces off guard. This incident exposed the tenuous lines of communication of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which they are now trying to address by constructing a bridge on the Pangong Tso.

The integration of Taiwan has always been the foremost priority for China. It is keen to integrate the island nation even by adopting the ‘One nation, two systems’ policy which it adopted for Macau and Hong Kong as well. However, the crushing of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, persecution of dissidents, passing of the national security law and other travesties against the residents of the island city have left Taiwan worried. China’s Taiwan plan has gone awry as the US has become more openly aligned with Taiwanese interests, especially the pro-independence stance of the current President Tsai Ing-wen. India seems to be drifting into the zone of active conflict between the US and China.

While there are multiple issues between India and China, these could have been discussed between the two foreign ministers when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi came to India in March this year. Neither the Chinese succeeded in their hidden agenda of declaring an international anti-West posture where India would have seemed to be aligned with Russia and China nor India made any major concessions. But the direction of future negotiations was made clear. Though there was no further progress in the easing of the LAC stand-off, China did take try to address the concerns of Indians studying in China who were not able to get a Chinese visa to resume their studies. Now when both foreign ministers have met on the sidelines of the G-20 meet in Bali earlier this week, new realities have come to the fore for both countries. China has to cope with the adverse impact of the US and US-led groupings (Quad, AUKUS, IPEF and B3W, among others), besides an adverse perception created due to its expansionist agenda as well as debt-trapping strategy the world over. China can ill-afford to face India with large-scale mobilisation on the LAC with no world power coming to its rescue. The one new-found friend, Russia, has more problems than it can solve.

To be realistic, India is also in a difficult position. Its firm stance has already done whatever good could be done. India also needs time to develop infrastructure along the borders, develop force structures, including theaterisation, and handle internal security challenges, especially in J&K. India should, therefore, also carry out a reappraisal of its stance with China to utilise the opportunities which have come to its doorstep in the form of Chinese eagerness to improve the bilateral relationship. While India has already drawn the red line in the public domain, especially on the LAC issue, it needs to re-craft its response so as to achieve maximum gains in all the interactive domains.

There are predictions of recession in the coming times and the country which is better prepared will be affected the least. Though Indian economy has a lot of resilience, it should not be tested too much. Instead, more should be added to its capacity. It will be possible only if India’s defence preparedness and economic performance are geared towards handling both external and internal shocks. Both countries need to prepare themselves to create enabling conditions for the resolution of the LAC stand-off in the run-up to the G-20 summit scheduled to be held in November. China should also seize the moment as its economic and trade advantage over other countries will start diminishing with the establishment and availability of alternative supply chains, trade routes and industrial basins.

A meeting between the foreign ministers of both countries, as a follow-up of the July 7 interaction in Bali, to resolve the LAC stand-off is extremely critical. Its resolution prior to the G-20 summit, when PM Modi and President Xi Jinping will come face to face, will be a welcome step and both countries need to utilise these opportunities.