India must be ready for the long haul

DOUBTS and queries had been raised in India about how important world powers would react if New Delhi hosted an international conference in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan would obviously raise strong objections to any country participating in such an event and seek to subvert it. The answers to such queries were provided recently. India carefully and deliberately chose Srinagar to host G20 members who were focusing attention on the promotion of tourism. Srinagar is widely accepted as a tourist haven. Pakistan, led by its young Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto, made all-out efforts to dissuade countries from attending the meeting. China predictably skipped the meeting and was ostensibly joined by some Islamic countries — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia and Turkiye. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia were, however, represented at the Srinagar meeting by their diplomats based in New Delhi. Turkiye has been an ardent supporter of Pakistan for decades. It has chosen to remain less than friendly with India.

India has to ensure that differences with China do not hamper the success of  the G20 Summit to be held later this year.

Just over a week earlier, the National Security Advisers (NSAs) of India (Ajit Doval) and the US (Jake Sullivan) met in Saudi Arabia along with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan, the NSA of the UAE. The US has a natural interest in restoring good relations with the oil-rich Saudi Arabia, which had been adversely affected by a less-than-tactful statement by President Biden about the desert kingdom. The US was, however, shaken when China brokered a deal to normalise relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. What is more astonishing is that the US appears to cherish having continuingly hostile relations with Iran, which has thrived and progressed for over four decades in the face of continuing American hostility. Chinese domination of relations with the leading powers of the oil-rich Persian Gulf region is hardly a development that India can be sanguine about. The US-India exchanges with the UAE and Saudi Arabia will hopefully enhance security, stability and cooperation across India’s oil-rich western neighbourhood. The understanding promoted by the US-India interaction with two crucial oil-rich Arab states should now be carefully integrated with work in the U2I2 grouping comprising the US, the UAE, India and Israel. Stability and peace in a region where an estimated 8.1 million Indians reside, out of whom 3.4 million are based in the UAE, is naturally of crucial importance to India.

Amidst these developments, the major security challenge that India has to face across its land and maritime frontiers arises from the continuing hostility of the Xi Jinping government. The threat posed to India by Chinese actions has been skilfully summed up by the former head of the Northern Command, Lt Gen HS Panag (retd). He mentions the conflict in Ladakh which commenced in 2020 when China seemed determined to move back to its unilaterally announced 1959 claim line. Beijing did not sufficiently succeed in this effort in the face of strong Indian resistance. Border tensions with China have escalated over the past three years. With an obviously well-planned attack in May 2020, China seized control of some areas in northern Ladakh. India responded firmly by enhancing deployment and establishing control over the strategic Kailash Range, a move China had evidently not expected.

Talks between senior military commanders have failed to change the status quo. More importantly, Chinese attempts to seize territories have continued. India has responded strongly by resisting Chinese efforts to seize territories in Arunachal Pradesh in the Tawang area. China’s aim is clearly to keep Indian troops deployed in difficult terrain and ice-cold weather in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Things could change only if China realises that continuous ‘salami slicing’ of small bits of Indian territory is not going to impact India’s growing relations with the US, Russia and Japan. Nor are they going to influence India’s determination to foster economic and defence ties through groupings such as the Quad and I2U2 across the Indo-Pacific region.

China also remains determined to undermine India’s influence in Nepal by courting a wide cross-section of the Nepalese political elite. This is, however, easier said than done, given the interdependence of landlocked Nepal and its people with India. While Bhutan and India are linked by long-standing treaty commitments, China is now seeking to make inroads into Bhutan by negotiating a border agreement. Bhutan, with its long-term economic, cultural and spiritual links, is, however, sensitive to India’s concerns as it proceeds with its talks with China. Most importantly, China has backed Pakistan in confronting India by liberal supplies of conventional weapons and assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile programmes. China remains engrossed in its long-term programme for strategic containment of India. This is a reality that India has to recognise and be prepared for a long haul.

India’s response to this long-term reality of challenges that China poses has been gradually picking up momentum. This has involved maintaining good relations with Russia, despite western reservations, which have grown stronger after the Ukraine conflict. While India recognises that Russia cannot indefinitely hold on to Ukrainian territory, there is good reason to infer that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy went too far with his ambitions by joining hands with the US and seeking control of Crimea.

China, which has offered to mediate, is going to realise that no solution to the Ukraine crisis can be found unless Russia’s crucial interests in Crimea and concerns over ethnic Russians in southern Ukraine are addressed. The bitterness that has characterised relations between Russia and Ukraine makes US ambitions to cut Russia down to size a virtually impossible task in the near future.

In the meantime, India is set to face the difficult task of ensuring that differences with China and rivalries between Russia and China on the one hand, and the US and its European allies on the other, do not hamper the success of the G20 Summit it is hosting later this year.