INDIA bloc totters as Congress faces isolation

THE 2024 Lok Sabha election results initially suggested that the INDIA bloc could serve as a stable and effective opposition to challenge the Narendra Modi government till 2029. However, this coalition is already tottering. The yearend is seeing the bloc heading for a premature demise.

The outcomes of the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls seem to have convinced a number of INDIA members, including the Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal that the Rahul Gandhi-Mallikarjun Kharge-led Congress is good for nothing.

As a seemingly well-thought-out strategy, AAP came out first, announcing ‘zero space’ for the grand old party in the Delhi Assembly elections. The remarks of Lalu Yadav and his son Tejashwi make it clear that they do not want the Congress in their mahagathbandhan for the 2025 Assembly polls in Bihar.

The year 2026 has Assembly polls lined up in Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, while the 2027 calendar has elections in Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. A cursory look at the political situation shows that the Congress faces the uphill task of wresting Assam from the BJP and Kerala from the LDF and retaining Himachal. In the rest of the states, it is either politically irrelevant or leans heavily on allies, like the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.

This explains why there is a churn within INDIA. Alliance politics in India is guided by certain principles and compulsions that are missing from the INDIA story as of now.

Firstly, alliances are stitched on the basis of the strengths of the partners, not their weaknesses. The Congress is often weak and vulnerable when it fights against the BJP in a direct electoral battle. Arvind Kejriwal has, therefore, turned stern, even though the Congress has hinted at accepting even a single-digit figure for seat-sharing in the Delhi Assembly polls. In Kejriwal’s assessment, the Congress is a liability as far as Delhi is concerned as the minority vote is set to switch from the Congress to the AAP. The Congress is now staring at the prospect of drawing a blank in the national capital for a record third time.

The ‘Kejriwal formula’ to drive the Congress out of the state-level alliance is emboldening the likes of Tejashwi Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray.

Unfortunately, for the Congress, the opportunity to prove its mettle would only come during the Assam and Kerala Assembly polls of 2026. Rahul Gandhi has issued a directive to senior party leaders and colleagues not to respond to bloc leaders’ comments or remarks. This is a weak and feeble attempt to let the alliance continue.

The issue of the bloc’s leadership is constantly raised by several regional parties within the alliance. In fact, except for the Congress, virtually everyone in the alliance parivar has recommended or supported Mamata as its head. She has even gone to the extent of ‘accepting’ the responsibility. But the Congress’ studied silence is blocking this move’s progress.

The Congress, perhaps, understands that INDIA partners want a ‘co-equal’ status within the bloc. Once again, the history of alliance politics in the country says something different. Alliances have worked and prospered whenever there has been a dominant partner and several minor players. For example, the UDF and LDF alliances in Kerala led by the Congress and the CPM, respectively, or the success of the NDA under the BJP. The Janata Party experiment of 1977, the National Front (1989) and the United Front (1996) were a disaster simply because they were based on the ‘co-equal’ recipe.

The Congress, even in terms of diminishing returns, fancies itself as the first among equals due to the virtue of having 100-odd seats in the Lok Sabha.

Interestingly, the leadership of an alliance was seldom sought in the past. Morarji Desai became the Prime Minister not because he was the best or a contender but for a reason — to keep Charan Singh in check. NT Rama Rao became the National Front convener in 1988-89 because he was not a contender for the post that saw Devi Lal’s nomination; later, the coveted post was offered to VP Singh. During the days of HD Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujral, TDP leader and Andhra Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu acted as convener and kingmaker of a short-lived United Front. In the Vajpayee era of unstable alliance politics, George Fernandes was chosen as the NDA convener. Rama Rao, Naidu or Fernandes were never heard hankering for a post that was offered to them. Ditto for Desai, Devi Lal, Gowda and Gujral. The Congress would want Mamata to know this.

The stalwart who can communicate it all is Sharad Pawar. But after the November 23 Maharashtra verdict, Pawar is a king without a kingdom, bitter and lonely. He is looking for a scapegoat for his party’s horrible performance in Maharashtra. And, the Congress fits the bill. While Pawar looks for a humiliating merger with nephew Ajit Pawar-led NCP, he is plotting with Mamata and Kejriwal to pin the blame on the Congress.

The Congress is missing an effective manager like Ahmed Patel to launch a counter-offensive or a cogent strategy. The three Gandhis and Kharge may look powerful, but deep inside, they are vulnerable and incapable of reaching out to mavericks like Mamata, Kejriwal, Lalu and Pawar.

Lastly, it must be remembered that the birth of alliances is announced with a lot of pomp and show, but their death goes unnoticed. From the Janata Party to the UPA, there has been no press conference or public announcement of the end of these alliances.