India becoming world's most populous country may strengthen its claim for permanent UNSC membership: UN official

United Nations, July 12

India’s claim for permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) may get strengthened if it surpasses China and becomes the world’s most populous nation in 2023, according to a top UN population official.

The World Population Prospects 2022 report released on Monday said that India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country next year. According to the report, India’s population stands at 1.412 billion in 2022, compared to China’s 1.426 billion.

India is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, way ahead of China’s 1.317 billion people by the middle of the century.

Director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs John Wilmoth said on Monday that India’s emergence as the country with the largest population could lead to “certain claims on things”.

“What is the significance of being the largest population in the world? I think you have certain claims on things. I wonder what will happen in terms of the discussion around roles at the UN and the roles of the permanent five members of the Security Council.

“If India becomes the largest country, they may think that it gives them a claim that they should be part of…they’ve been claiming that they should be part of that group (permanent member of the Security Council) anyway. But, you know, it may strengthen their claim,” Wilmoth said while responding to a question on the impact of India surpassing China during a press conference at the launch of the report.

India has been at the forefront of the years-long efforts to reform the Security Council saying it rightly deserves a place as a permanent member of the Council, which in its current form does not represent the geo-political realities of the 21st Century.

“India had a smoother transition that brought the fertility rate down slowly. That means there aren’t the same kind of discontinuities in the historical patterns and there hasn’t been the same very rapid aging of the population, although aging will come there as well.

“But it will be a more gradual process. And in some ways that may be better to manage, a better circumstance, in the long run for the economy to have that kind of more gradual demographic change than the very rapid change that’s happened in China,” Wilmoth said.

Patrick Gerland, the Chief, Population Estimates and Projection Section, Population Division, said “Once India is able to do their next census, and the new information will become available, we will be able to take advantage of this information to reassess.”