Rise and fall of the Canadian dream

Avneet Kaur in Jalandhar, Sukhmeet Bhasin in Bathinda & Charanjit Teja in Amritsar

For years, families in Punjab have sold land and borrowed money to realise their dream of seeing their children settle in Canada. Sweeping policy changes by Ottawa this year, however, have changed the immigration dynamics and patterns in the state.

First, it was the doubling of the Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) amount for international students in Canada from CAD 10,000 to CAD 20,635 in January this year. Then came the introduction of 10 per cent cap for two years on student permit visas. Next was the closure of the Student Direct Stream (SDS) programme and stricter rules for study permits, work permits and postgraduate pathways, sparking widespread discontent. Protests erupted across Canada, with students from private institutions being particularly vocal about the barriers these changes created.

In a recent tweet, Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller raised concerns about unethical practices by immigration consultants. He linked a rise in asylum claims by international students to potential misrepresentation by advisers.

The ripple effects are being felt most acutely in Punjab. Immigration centres in the state have reported an 80 per cent drop in Canada-related enquiries, forcing many offices to close or slash their workforce by nearly 30 per cent. This downturn has affected not only aspiring students, but also those who recently moved to Canada and are facing stricter post-study and work opportunities.

Daljit Nirman, a barrister, solicitor and visiting professor in Canada, says these changes aim to address the overly relaxed policies of previous years, which resulted in unchecked growth and significant challenges for institutions and communities. However, it’s uncertain whether the new adjustments would prove effective, he adds.

Nirman also notes that changes in the Post Graduate Work Permit (PGWP) programme, including revised permit durations and stricter eligibility, focus on ensuring that graduates gain meaningful Canadian work experience essential for permanent residency.

Meanwhile, the tighter regulations have severely impacted businesses tied to student migration in Punjab. Sumit Jain, owner of Jain Overseas in Jalandhar, admits a drastic decline in inquiries and enrolments at IELTS centres. “The craze for Canada among aspiring students has diminished significantly, and those already in Canada are facing uncertainty about permanent residency,” he says. Jain adds that this shift is also leading to a loss of jobs in Punjab, with many offices shutting down or cutting staff.

Sunil, a consultant at Jalandhar-based Pyramid eServices, feels the uncertainty may persist until at least January 2026. He says many students who moved to Canada in recent years are now struggling to navigate the revised pathways for work permits and permanent residency, while aspiring students are increasingly turning to destinations like Germany, France and Ireland.

Manisha Zaveri, joint managing director at Career Mosaic, Jalandhar, says there’s been a 70 per cent drop in Canadian enrolments since 2021, with a further decline expected by 2025. “Students from Punjab, both aspiring and those who moved to Canada recently, are now re-evaluating their plans,” she adds.

Zaveri points to France, Germany and Ireland emerging as the alternatives, “offering more transparent and welcoming policies”.

Sachin Jain, country manager of ETS India and South Asia, observes that while some students remain committed to Canada, the lure is fading for many. “For serious students, Canada remains the top choice, as reflected in the growing TOEFL test-taker base and improved scores from cities like Mansa and Sangrur,” he says. However, he acknowledges that alternatives like the United States, Australia and Switzerland are gaining traction, especially among students seeking stability and clear work opportunities.

MALWA BADLY HIT

The immigration sector in the Malwa region is also facing a slump. It has led to the closure of many immigration and IELTS centres on Ajit Road in Bathinda, which had become an immigration hub with over 200 centres coming up in the past one decade.

The industry’s IELTS coaching volume has taken a hit of almost 80 per cent, while visa processing service requirements have reduced by 60-70 per cent over the past few months, according to office-bearers of the Study Abroad Consultants Association (SACA).

As securing visas is becoming difficult, industry insiders report that the flow of clients seeking immigration services has dwindled in the past six months. Small and medium-size

Bathinda’s Ajit Road, which was once a hub of immigration centres. Tribune photo: Pawan Sharmaimmigration agencies, which lack the resources to adapt to the new guidelines, have been particularly hard hit.“I had to shut down my centre last month due to the lack of applications,” says Baljeet Singh, the owner of a small immigration consultancy in Bathinda.

The situation has also impacted local economies, as the immigration sector provided employment opportunities to many in Bathinda, from language coaching centres to document preparation services.

For aspirants, the new Canadian policies are a source of frustration. “I have spent over Rs 5 lakh preparing my application, but the rejection rates are higher than ever,” says Harpreet Kaur, a Bathinda resident.

Ruban Kohli, an immigration expert, says, “Our business has faced a slump as the Canada bubble has burst. It’s now a saga of dreams deferred, if not destroyed. Increasing visa rejections and the rising cost of living have had a role to play as well. The cost of moving to Canada has increased from Rs 22-23 lakh to Rs 37 lakh since the revision in policies earlier this year, but students with proper documentation still have a great chance to go and study in Canada.”

While some larger firms are attempting to diversify by focusing on other countries like Australia, the UK and Germany, many believe it will take time for these markets to gain traction.

As the region grapples with these challenges, experts are urging aspirants to be cautious and better informed before investing in immigration services, particularly with unauthorised agents. The slump has also raised calls for stricter regulation of the immigration consultancy sector in India.

HUNT FOR A SAFE ‘GAME’

The search for greener pastures for migrants does not end even when they reach Canada. They remain in pursuit of the goal of legally or illegally entering the mightier and more prosperous US.

In what is referred to as the “game”, scores of students and workers in Canada, whose work visa is on the verge of expiry, are enticed to enter the US. They hope to get a job and make a fresh start for permanent residency by filing their applications for asylum, which would allow them to prolong their stay.

These asylum-seekers include college dropouts, workers with expired permits, and individuals with invalid visitor or spouse visas in Canada. There are around 10 lakh immigrants who are overstaying in Canada. Even though Canada is also considered liberal for asylum-seekers, the immigrants are keen to work in the US.

Canada received 1,43,370 applications from asylum-seekers in 2023 and it decided nearly 80 per cent of the cases within a span of 77 days or less, reveals the annual report to Parliament on immigration in 2024.

In any case, the asylum-seekers do not have much time to work in Canada after filling the application for asylum. And if the application is rejected, one fears deportation. Contrarily, in the US, applications from asylum-seekers might not be settled for years and this gives more time to applicants to stay temporarily and work.

Several agents have emerged to assist the asylum-seekers in crossing the US border. They advertise their offers on TikTok and charge around $4,000-$8,000 per individual. The “game” lures the gullible and those desperately looking for help, like guidance to a “safe route” to the US, detention assistance, and immigration attorney services for release from police custody.

After crossing the border, they are detained by the US police. Due to a major backlog of asylum applications, they receive US work permits in most of the cases. As per the latest data of the US Customs and Border Protection, 43,764 individuals have crossed the Northern Land border. Of these, 36,379 were single adults, 7,188 individuals in a family unit, 149 were unaccompanied children and 49 were accompanied minors.