How Ukraine standoff can impact India

An imbroglio has evolved around Ukraine. The US and its NATO allies find themselves in a confrontational mode with Russia over Ukraine. The principal contention surrounds Russian refusal to acquiesce to any possibility of NATO drawing Ukraine within its orb. Moreover, Ukraine borders Russia and it is considered by Russia to be within its sphere of diplomatic influence.

Furthermore, Russia insists that NATO repudiate its earlier resolve of including Ukraine and Georgia within its ambit. It wants to reduce provocative western military activity on its borders, work out new arms control and military confidence-building measures in Europe. Nevertheless, the official viewpoint from Washington DC and Brussels insists that NATO’s eastward expansion is legitimate and that it does not pose any threat to Russia.

The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, held parleys with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv earlier this week. The explicit objective was to display American security adherence to Ukraine, currently considered susceptible to Russian threat. Blinken confabulated with his German, French and British counterparts in Berlin on Thursday to discuss a potent response, should Russia resort to military action against Ukraine.

At present, Russia has sent troops to Belarus for major military exercises. That would reinforce the already amassed nearly 100,000 Russian troops along with tanks and other heavy weapons at very close proximity to the Russia-Ukraine border.

The western powers are apprehensive that this might be a prelude to the Russian occupation of Ukraine. That, according to them, could jolt the present power structure set-up and its attendant attributes. Even before, in February, 2014, Ukraine had forced its then allegedly pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych to resign.

Russia interpreted it as a ploy by the western powers to challenge Russian influence in its own backyard. As a rejoinder, it seized and annexed Ukraine’s southern Crimean peninsula. Subsequently, it supported separatists who were supportive of Russia to capture large swathes of Ukraine’s two eastern regions, known collectively as the Donbas.

Even then, currently, Russia has denied any intention to attack its ex-Soviet neighbour. But, it has demanded guarantees from the West that NATO would not extend its reach to Ukraine, neither to any other former Soviet nations, and nor would it place its troops or weapons there.

This episode is symptomatic of a seemingly continuing disagreement about what the collapse and disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union means for the global order. For many westerners, the legacy of the Soviet downfall is quite simple: the US won the Cold War and has taken its rightful place in the world, whereas the post-Soviet Russia has been essentially unsuccessful to integrate itself as a regional power in the Washington-led post-war liberal international order.

For Russians, the perspective is completely different. In their view, Russia’s subordinate position is the illegitimate result of a never-ending US campaign to keep Russia subverted and to prevent it from regaining its proper status.

Today, Moscow is apparently keen to grapple with the challenge for successfully demarcating a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet space, excepting the Baltic nations. It is definite in its resolve that the West recognise it, fair and square. To reach any measure of meaningful accommodation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his colleagues at the Kremlin, the West has to acknowledge it, at least to some degree. It is surely not Russia’s destiny to confront the West continuously. Russia’s prevailing dilemmas with the US-led West are not really about ideological principles. They concern the terms of an honourable accommodation.

However, this quandary in Eastern Europe could have an unwarranted spillover effect for India. Till the disintegration of the former USSR, the Indian ruling establishment had maintained strong ties with Soviet Russia, to counter what it saw as recurring US ignorance towards Indian national security interests.

The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Thereafter, the new Russian nation eagerly embraced the US-led order. But that bonhomie did not continue for long. Relations between Russia and the West began to sour towards the end of the last millennium.

Consequently, Indo-Russian relations also witnessed a new era of warmth. Moscow also cultivated closer ties with China and built new coalitions in a bid to engender a multi-polar world that would potentially limit the possibilities of excessive American hyper-power. Incidentally, India’s relations with the US started witnessing a rapid improvement circa 2000.

Notably, the strengthening of India’s ties with the US also witnessed a concurrent exacerbation of Russian relations with the US. Conversely, Russia relatively strengthened its ties with China.

While India has been increasing its parleys with the US and entering into various pacts and alliances with it, Russia has been cementing its ties with China in a bid to be able to better counter US aggressiveness, should the need for doing so arise. For India, the China threat is perceived to be managed well through a strengthening alliance with the US. But Russian apprehensiveness to that dynamic refuses to abate.

Ties between India and Russia would have to navigate through the tortuous ways of the present scenario, seemingly tempestuous dynamics of international politics. For both countries, understanding the contextual and particularities of each country’s case-specific interests would undoubtedly contribute to meaningful Indo-Russian bilateral relations. Coping effectively with the complex, turbulent dynamic of Russian diplomacy with the US-led West would have to be an enduring, successful element of India’s foreign policy. As long as it does not hurt the fundamental Russian security interests, burgeoning Indian alliances with the US should not be a cause of Russian anxiety.

It is a fervent hope and possibility that Russia would recognise that a prolonged confrontation with the US and Europe would not serve its interests. Relying solely on China to secure its geopolitical interests has inherent dangers for Russia. Because China has more often than otherwise displayed and attempted its own hegemonic designs on other countries. A meaningful accommodation with America and Europe is bound to be a high priority for Russia.

Similarly, America and its allies in NATO would also do well to realise that an undue expansion of their military alliance near Russia’s doorstep would be a sure recipe to incurring Russian angst and wrath. A framework and approach of effective cooperation would be more conducive and contributive for global peace and stability.