How Opposition lost the Maharashtra plot
THE Congress got it wrong in Maharashtra from the outset. Seasoned party leaders who were appointed observers for the Assembly polls had no proficiency in the Marathi language, a prerequisite in the state. This galaxy of leaders told the party top brass that Maharashtra was heading for a hung House and that the Congress should make arrangements to shift MLAs of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) to Bengaluru to avoid poaching and horse-trading. Three prominent hotels in Congress-ruled Karnataka were booked, while a chartered plane was on standby to airlift MLAs in the evening on November 23. All these preparations proved to be needless.
The enormity of the defeat of the grand old party and its allies — the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP-Sharadchandra Pawar) and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) — is glaring because INDIA leaders, both collectively and individually, had not anticipated such a result. Most of the internal surveys had given the MVA an edge over the BJP-led Mahayuti, predicting 140-plus seats for the alliance in the 288-member Assembly. Party chief Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi had asked observers Ashok Gehlot, Bhupesh Baghel and G Parameshwara to head for Mumbai on the counting day so that talks on government formation and other issues were handled promptly.
The performance of the Congress and its allies in Maharashtra is a sad commentary on the Opposition that failed and faltered at every stage of electioneering. Apart from fielding a battery of outsiders as campaigners and observers, the grand old party did little to build a narrative or counter Mahayuti’s high-pitched campaign that stoked fear and insecurity. As an alliance, the MVA trio was simply missing from the ground.
In most constituencies, the entire campaign revolved around the candidate rather than his/her party or the MVA. There were reports that over 50,000 RSS workers were going door to door, focusing on Dalits, Adivasis, OBCs, Marathas and others; they claimed that the majority community’s interests were under threat and there was no move to change any constitutional provisions relating to caste-based quota in jobs and educational institutions. Union ministers Kiren Rijiju and Bhupendra Yadav coordinated closely at block and polling booth levels. Interestingly, the RSS leadership asked its cadre to deliver Maharashtra in a grand manner as a ‘gift’ or a souvenir in the run-up to the organisation’s centenary.
The main INDIA parties had no control over smaller outfits such as the Samajwadi Party (SP), Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen. The ‘others’ bagged a staggering 17 per cent of the votes; the difference of nearly 11 percentage points in the vote share of the MVA and Mahayuti was just too big. The presence of SP candidates had an adverse impact as reckless Muslim clerics started making tall claims about promises of job quota for Muslims and exemplary punishment for those accused of blasphemy. While mischievous elements indulging in blasphemy or threatening public order deserve no sympathy or leniency, the rule of law entails that punishment can be delivered through the due process. In a nutshell, blasphemy was not a poll issue, but the BJP-Sena network feverishly circulated video and audio clips of Maulana Sajjad Nomani and others to instil a sense of insecurity.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who never shies away from speaking his mind, came up with the “bateinge to kateinge” slogan, which was later improvised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as “ek hain to safe hain”. It was baffling that the MVA and non-Mahayuti parties, in order to get the support of Muslims in 40-odd Assembly seats, ended up helping the BJP, even though the majority of the Muslim votes would have easily come their way.
The MVA strategy was questionable. For the Congress, poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu, enjoying ministerial status in Karnataka, had reportedly begun preparations in January this year. Kanugolu had stayed away from the Congress’ Lok Sabha campaign in order to focus on Maharashtra. Congress managers gave him a considerable amount to run the campaign. More than money, much like in the case of Haryana, Kanugolu was given a free hand. It is an open secret that his inputs and selection of party nominees had come under scrutiny during the Haryana Assembly polls. Yet, Rahul Gandhi and AICC functionaries let him run the Maharashtra campaign.
Accountability and transparency have always been in short supply in the Congress. The party panels appointed to look into the factors for the party’s defeat in November-December 2023 Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are yet to submit their reports. The minutes of the Udaipur Chintan Shivir, held in May 2022, are still ‘locked’ in Jairam Ramesh's laptop without any deliberations in the Congress Working Committee. The grip of Ramesh, KC Venugopal, Randeep Singh Surjewala and Kanugolu over the organisation is so strong that it has started questioning the credentials of the Gandhis and Kharge. The presence of Priyanka Gandhi as an MP is unlikely to usher in reforms and restructuring of the AICC secretariat, though many Congress insiders have great expectations from her.
Intrigue has always been an inseparable part of politics. But it requires talent to execute a plan to bring leaders of potential as AICC observers for Maharashtra and then blame them for the loss. Only past masters of palace intrigue could think of this and get away with it. In this context, the Maharashtra polls show why the Congress cannot revitalise itself as long as there is a coterie that does not want the Rahul-Kharge team to be successful. It may sound bizarre, but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility.
