Reprieve for Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu government amidst ‘weakened’ Central BJP

KS Tomar

Due to the “weakened” position of the BJP and an effective strength of 234 MPs of the INDIA bloc, including 99 MPs of the Congress in Parliament, a perceived perception of the implementation of “Operation Lotus” to topple the Sukhu government in Himachal Pradesh has receded, thereby giving a reprieve to the ruling party.

Not an easy task

• In case “Operation Lotus 2” is launched, the BJP will have to engineer defection of six MLAs to topple the Sukhu government which may not be easy, especially after the Centre is on a weak footing as the BJP will run coalition government on the crutches of allies like the TDP and JD (U) etc.
• A cursory look at the outcome of the four Lok Sabha seats in the state shows that the BJP has got every reason to smile as the Modi Magic worked in the hilly state. Modi has got an old association with people of HP as he was general secretary, in charge of the BJP for more than 10 years during early nineties.
• The victory of Kangana Ranaut from the Mandi constituency, a novice in politics, is an evidence of Modi’s popularity. The BJP retained all four seats, but its vote share has come down from 69.11 per cent in 2019 to 56.29per cent, which means a drop of 11.82 per cent.
• The BJP seems to be satisfied as its nominees polled 56.29 per cent ie 14.72 per cent more than the Congress, 41.57 per cent. The Congress increased its vote share by 16.04 per cent in 2024, which was 25.53 per cent in 2019.Political observers say that even the Modi magic could ensure the lead in 61 segments as against clean sweep in 68 Assembly segments in 2019.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah had declared at election rallies in Nahan and Hamirpur, respectively, that the Congress government in the state would not survive after June 4. Drawing same analogy, Opposition leader Jai Ram Thakur and state BJP president Rajiv Bindal had repeatedly threatened to topple the state government during campaigning which was aimed at luring voters and creating suspicion about its survival.

The BJP was expecting 370 seats, but could not cross the majority mark of 272 and got stuck at 240, hence it may abandon the fanciful idea of toppling the elected government in Himachal Pradesh. The BJP had failed in its first attempt to destabilise the Sukhu government despite cross-voting by six Congress MLAs during the Rajya Sabha election for the lone seat, which was won by BJP nominee Harsh Mahajan by draw

of lots.

The rebels were disqualified by Speaker Kuldeep Singh Pathania, hence by-elections were held along with the Lok Sabha election on June 1. The Congress won four out of the six seats and the BJP had to content with two seats only, which has increased the house strength to 65. Now, the Congress has got 38 MLAs, whereas the BJP strength will go up to 27.

There is a new twist in the entire imbroglio as the Speaker has accepted the resignations of three independents who had resigned and joined the BJP which will necessitate by-elections within six months. At present, the house strength is again reduced to 65 and the Congress is having a comfortable majority with

38 MLAs.

In case “Operation Lotus 2” is launched, the BJP will have to engineer defection of six MLAs to topple the Sukhu government which may not be easy, especially after the Centre is on a weak footing as the BJP will run coalition government on the crutches of allies like the TDP and

JD (U) etc.

A cursory look at the outcome of the four Lok Sabha seats in the state shows that the BJP has got every reason to smile as the Modi Magic worked in the hilly state. Modi has got an old association with people of Himachal Pradesh as he was general secretary, in charge of the BJP for more than 10 years during

early nineties.

The victory of Kangana Ranaut from the Mandi constituency, a novice in politics, is an evidence of Modi’s popularity. The BJP retained all four seats, but its vote share has come down from 69.11 per cent in 2019 to 56.29per cent, which means a drop of 11.82 per cent. The BJP seems to be satisfied as its nominees polled 56.29 per cent ie 14.72 per cent more than the Congress, 41.57 per cent. The Congress increased its vote share by 16.04 per cent in 2024, which was 25.53 per cent in 2019.

Political observers say that even the Modi magic could ensure the lead in 61 segments as against clean sweep in 68 Assembly segments in 2019.

Experts believe the Congress failed to deliver as it lacked poll preparedness and there was a complete lack of close coordination between organisation and the government, hence the onus of defeat will rest on the Chief Minister as well state party chief Pratibha Singh, though both deny such a gap.

- The writer is a senior journalist based in Shimla

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