Late monsoon withdrawal in Himachal Pradesh emerges as a trend

The southwest monsoon withdrew from the entire state today, a week after the normal date of withdrawal — September 25. The late withdrawal of the monsoon is firming up into a trend in the state – it’s for the fourth straight year that the monsoon has retreated in October.

Post 2014, the monsoon has withdrawn consistently after the normal date – the withdrawal happened eight times in October and thrice towards the tail end of September. In sharp contrast, in 17 years leading up to 2014 from 1997, the withdrawal date spilled over to October only once – in 2007 when the monsoon retreated on October 2.

Kuldeep Srivastava, Director, Meteorological Centre, Shimla, said that the rainfall activity was continuing until the last week of September in some parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir over the past few years, leading to the delay in withdrawal. “We will have to conduct a study to find out the reasons causing the delay and its impact,” the Director said, adding that it would be a little premature to link the phenomenon with climate change or any other reason.

The Director said that certain meteorological conditions need to be fulfilled before the withdrawal of monsoon could be declared. “These conditions pertain mainly to wind patterns, the rainfall activity in the region over the last few days, etc,” he said, adding that the deviation of three-four days on either side of the normal date is not significant. Incidentally, the monsoon withdrawal has been delayed by over two weeks twice in the last five years. In 2019, the monsoon withdrew on October 11, and on October 10 in 2019.

Meanwhile, the agriculture department doesn’t see any immediate impact of delayed monsoon on the cropping pattern. “At worst, it could slightly delay the harvest of paddy and maize in some lower areas of the state,” said an official of the Agriculture Department.