Anti-incumbency headwind for BJP in Shimla
Subhash Rajta
Shimla, May 28
Of all four parliamentary constituencies in the state, the Congress seems to be best placed in Shimla to put up a tough fight against the BJP.
Having won 13 of the total 17 seats falling in this parliamentary constituency in the 2022 Assembly elections, inducting five MLAs from amongst them in the council of ministers and making three of them the Chief Parliamentary Secretary could give the Congress an advantage. Also, the apple and stone fruit growers’ lobby declaring that it would oppose the BJP in the elections would also give an edge to the Congress. Besides, the BJP will have to offset the anti-incumbency against its sitting MP Suresh Kashyap if it wants to register the fourth consecutive win in what was once a strong Congress bastion.
What favours Cong
- Big representation for Cong MLAs from the constituency in government
- Anti-incubency against Suresh Kashyap
What works for BJP
- The Modi charisma and BJP candidate Suresh Kashyap seeking votes in PM’s name
- Huge victory margin in last Lok Sabha elections
Total voters 13,32,277
Female 6,47,788
Male 6,84,489
Last winner: Suresh Kashyap (BJP)
Winning margin: 3,27,514
Despite these obvious advantages, Vinod Sultanpuri, the Congress candidate who is the first time MLA from the Kasauli Assembly constituency, faces an uphill task. Kashyap, his rival, had secured victory in the last Lok Sabha elections by a huge margin of 3,27,514 votes. It will take a massive shift of votes from the BJP to the Congress to bridge this gap. Add to it the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on whose name Kashyap and other BJP candidates are seeking votes. Modi held a rally in Nahan recently to seek votes for Kashyap, which would bolster his position. “Most people look at the Central leadership while voting for the Lok Sabha elections. Many people here wouldn’t even know who the local MP is. They will have Modi and the opposition leaders in mind while casting their vote,” said Dalip Singh, a resident of Paonta Sahib.
For Sultanpuri, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge held a rally in Rohru and senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in Nahan. Besides, Sultanpuri will also bank on the legacy of his father who won the Shimla Parliamentary seat for a record six times. Sultanpuri has been seeking votes on the promise of vociferously raising the issues faced in the constituency and state in the Parliament, which “Kashyap failed to do”. Having been an MLA just for about 15 months, there’s not much against Sultanpuri as of now.
Being a sitting MP, Kashyap will have to deal with greater resentment. The apple growers, for instance, have openly declared that they will oppose the BJP candidates in these elections. “We did not see Suresh Kashyap raising our concerns even once in the Parliament. If he can’t raise our issues, why should we vote for him?” asked Harish Chauhan, convener of the Sanyukt Kisan Manch. Upset with the BJP government at the Centre and the previous Jai Ram government in the state, the farmers’ body had decided to vote against all BJP candidates.
In his home district of Sirmaur, Kashyap would hope for support from the Hatti community, who have been granted the ST status by the Centre. However, the BJP lost three of the five seats to the Congress in Sirmaur in the Assembly elections immediately after granting the ST status to the community, indicating the support on the Hatti issue can’t be taken for granted.
All said and done, the constituency looks poised for an interesting contest.
