High global stakes in a bitter US election

MANY years ago, there was a joke that the

difference between US Democrats and Republicans was like the contrast between Coke and Pepsi. Now, it seems both have lost the fizz and represent two conflicting worldviews and distinct approaches amid wildly differing expectations. The mild common effervescence is replaced by bitter froth.

For voters in the US, the concerns are unemployment, inflation, immigration, disproportionate growth in income levels, and reproductive healthcare. Pollsters are busy projecting the future based on the way they gauge popular moods; betting syndicates ogle at their desired outcome. The US electorate grapples with this tug of war; the world waits for the outcome, and its implications for other regions and global geopolitics.

West Asia has to be a priority of the US administration, given its share of 40 per cent in global oil exports and America’s reliance on the region for oil security. West Asia plays a crucial role in balancing oil demand and supply globally. The issues of oil and regional security, the US relationship with Saudi Arabia and the repercussions of the Israel-Gaza conflict on the region are important.

There seems to be uncertainty about who between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris can impact the situation in West Asia in a positive way, especially as dissatisfaction might grow if there is loss of territory in Gaza or West Bank.

The other region that is likely to be impacted is Latin America, which has witnessed the growing influence of China. Earlier considered a preserve of the US, China’s role in Latin America has grown rapidly, led by its state firms investing in the region’s energy, infrastructure and space industries. China now ranks as South America’s top trading partner, with free trade agreements with Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador and Peru, and 21 Latin American countries signing the Belt and Road Initiative of China.

China has invested about $73 billion in Latin America’s raw material sector, including by building refineries and processing plants in countries with significant amounts of coal, copper, natural gas, oil and uranium. China has also invested in lithium production in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile and financial ports, airports, highways and railway projects.

What could be worrying for the US is China’s concentration on building ‘new infrastructure’, such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing and 5G technology, and its strong bid to strengthen cooperation in the space sector.

For Latin America, the major issue is immigration, which is clearly on the rise as witnessed by the number of people detained at the border. The US administration’s war on drugs also affects Latin American countries, which may not be producers, but serve as corridors for drug and human trafficking to the US. According to Colombian journalist Diana Duran, the US administration needs to realise the importance of Latin America for the US economy.

The question of the US-Russia relationship came up during the presidential debate in September. What seems to bother the US is that after the breakup of the Soviet Union, there was hope that the new Russia would be liberal, democratic and helpful to its neighbours. The emergence of Russia, especially under Putin, as a country working to be a superpower has belied US expectations, turning potential cooperation into a possible conflict.

While America cannot ignore Russia, the latter seems unconcerned about the US elections. According to some experts, Harris is relatively unknown to Russians. Although she is expected to continue the Biden approach, Trump is known to be a ‘friend’ and is preferred. Bob Woodward’s latest book, War, refers to secret conversations between Trump and Putin, giving rise to the apprehensions that Trump might make concessions to Russia. This may help Russia in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis, besides adding to its growing importance in influencing global economy because of its energy resources, due to which it has been able to consolidate its position with many Asian and European countries despite sanctions.

As far as China is concerned, it is believed that the US elections are being carefully studied by think tanks in Beijing because of the likely impact on trade, Taiwan and clean energy. With respect to trade, some in Beijing favour Trump over Harris, but most think that the relationship will be determined by real economic considerations. The main issue would be tariffs, especially for Chinese tech companies that might be subjected to a differential regime.

The enormous dependence of the US on Chinese imports has led to a substantial trade deficit. Needless to say, while both countries have a relationship of economic interdependence, the US has depended a lot on China as a destination for its foreign direct investments. One of the priorities for the US is also the diversification of its supply chains.

As far as Taiwan is concerned, neither Harris nor Trump are likely to change the current position. Further, there is a growing realisation in the US that the need to move to clean energy gives advantage to China, given its dominance in the manufacturing of equipment and control over critical materials.

The one area that may see the most visible impact of the US election results will be the global effort to combat climate change, given the diverse position of the principal contenders. While there is a recognition to find an answer to the ‘energy hunger’ in Asia and Africa, their known differences are bound to affect global determination and collaboration in achieving energy sufficiency as well as energy transition.

During the presidential debate, Harris dwelt on the threat that climate change poses, and referred to the initiatives and investments of the Biden administration in clean energy. While Harris talked of creating new manufacturing jobs through investing in clean energy, Trump’s emphasis was on protecting the US industry from foreign competition and utilising available resources to meet energy needs.

The outcome of this election in an era where democracy itself faces serious challenges globally could also have major consequences for climate change. Both the right to liberty and the right to life need a breath of fresh air.

The author is a former Election Commissioner of India