With 5 LS seats in kitty, Congress in pole position for Haryana Assembly poll

Bhartesh Singh Thakur

Chandigarh, June 5

Despite the BJP and Congress bagging five seats each in the Lok Sabha elections, it appears the Congress is in a dominant position ahead of the state Assembly elections, scheduled for September-October. Besides the Congress-AAP alliance having a higher vote percentage, it also leads in 46 Assembly segments as compared to the BJP which is leading in 44 segments.

The vote percentage of the INDIA bloc constituents stands at 47.61 per cent, with the Congress garnering 43.67 per cent across nine seats and the AAP securing 3.94 per cent in one seat. This is 1.5 per cent higher than the BJP’s vote share of 46.11 per cent.

While the BJP experienced a dip of over 12 per cent in the vote share as compared to 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress alone has seen an increase of over 15 per cent in the vote share. With a vote share of 43.67 per cent, this is the highest the Congress has achieved since 1989.

The Congress has secured a lead in all nine Assembly segments of both Rohtak and Sirsa. Additionally, it is ahead of the BJP in five Assembly segments of Ambala parliamentary seat, six in Hisar, and four in Sonepat. The party has also garnered a lead in three Assembly segments each of Gurgaon, Faridabad, and Bhiwani-Mahendragarh.

The grand old party leads in five Assembly constituencies represented by BJP ministers, namely Agriculture Minister Kanwar Pal Gujjar (Jagadhri), Power Minister Ranjit Singh (Rania), Finance Minister Jai Prakash Dalal (Loharu), Transport Minister Aseem Goel (Ambala City), and Social Justice and Empowerment Minister Bishamber Singh (Bawani Khera). However, the party has lost in all nine Assembly segments of Karnal.

The AAP has secured a lead in four segments of Kurukshetra. The BJP is ahead in 44 Assembly seats.

However, the catch here is that there are 26 Assembly seats where the lead is less than 10,000, and these could sway either way during the state elections, as regional parties and local issues will also influence the outcome.

Historical data indicates that Haryana has consistently seen a spillover of Lok Sabha results into Assembly elections. After winning nine out of 10 seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress came to power in subsequent Assembly elections held in February 2005, securing 67 of 90 Assembly seats.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won nine seats, and in the subsequent state Assembly elections in October same year, it retained power with 40 seats.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won just one seat, while the BJP won seven. In the subsequent Vidhan Sabha polls in October the same year, the Congress was reduced to 15 seats, while the BJP secured 47 seats and formed the government.

In 2019, under Modi’s wave, the BJP posted its best-ever performance by winning all 10 Lok Sabha seats with a vote share of 58.21 per cent. However, within four to five months, the vote share fell by 21.71 per cent as the state issues gained prominence. Nevertheless, the party secured 40 seats and managed to retain power with support from the JJP.

Professor Ashutosh Kumar from the Department of Political Science at Panjab University (PU) explains, “If the state Assembly elections are held soon after the Lok Sabha polls, parties tend to replicate their performance, as we have seen in the case of Haryana (in 2005, 2009, 2014, and 2019).”

Regarding the Haryana Lok Sabha results, he said, “The results reflect a surge for the Congress. This will increase the bargaining power of Hooda, and his rival factions within the party could be marginalised. The Congress is expected to outperform the BJP in the state Assembly elections, as state-level issues and community consolidation will play a significant role.” He adds, “There will be no Modi factor. It will be Hooda vs Saini, where Hooda will have the upper hand.”

India bloc vote share 1.5% more than BJP’s

• Vote share of the India bloc is 47.61 per cent, 1.5% higher than the BJP’s 46.11 per cent
• While the BJP saw a dip of over 12% in the vote share as compared to 2019 Lok Sabha poll, the Congress has seen a rise of over 15%