No wave, JJP, INLD may tilt the scales

Pradeep Sharma

Chandigarh, May 23

With the BJP and the Congress locked in a neck and neck fight, the regional parties — JJP and the INLD — are set to tilt the scales in the May 25 Lok Sabha elections.

In fact, the number of votes secured by the JJP and the INLD candidates can tilt the balance in favour of either the BJP or the Congress candidates as there is no clear wave in favour of any party.

The traditional vote bank of the JJP and the INLD, the Jats, form a sizeable section in almost all 10 parliamentary constituencies in Haryana. In fact, the total number of votes, including the Jat votes, secured by these two regional parties will determine the winner among the two national parties.

“The vote share of the JJP and the INLD will definitely affect the chances of the BJP and the Congress candidates in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. However, which of the two parties —BJP and the Congress — gets affected the most needs to be seen and will differ from seat to seat,” said Kushal Pal, political analyst and Principal of Indira Gandhi National College, Ladwa (Kurukshstra).

Riding on the massive Modi wave, the BJP had won all 10 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, anti-incumbency, farmers’ anger against the BJP governments the Centre and the state and bouncing back of the Congress in the electoral arena are posing a strong challenge to the BJP this time around.

In the upcoming parliamentary polls, the BJP is relying on the Modi factor and Ram temple to woo the non-Jat and urban voters in view of stiff opposition from the rural areas. On the other hand, the Congress is banking on anti-incumbency against the BJP governments and consolidation of rural, especially Jat votes, in its favour to record an impressive performance in the Lok Sabha polls.

It may be recalled that before a vertical split in the INLD in December 2018, which led to the emergence of JJP on Haryana’s political map, the INLD had an impressive electoral record. The party, led by former Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala, has consistently been securing between 15 per cent to 28 per cent votes in successive Lok Sabha elections.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the INLD had two MPs securing 24.4 per cent votes. However, post-split in 2019, the INLD clocked it’s worst-ever performance securing just 1.9 per cent votes.

The JJP is also no better as it secured only 4.9 per cent votes. However, in the 2019 Assembly elections, the JJP emerged as kingmaker winning 10 seats and cobbled together an alliance to form a government in Haryana. The alliance broke off in March this year.

Now, the regional parties’ performance in the Lok Sabha polls will determine their relevance in the Haryana politics besides having a major effect on the winnability of the candidates of the national parties.