BJP eyes gain in Haryana as no alliance between Congress, AAP split anti-incumbency vote
With no alliance between the Congress and AAP, the BJP is pinning hopes on the division of votes among non-BJP parties in the upcoming Assembly polls.
Facing 10-year anti-incumbency, the hopes of the saffron party to form the government for the third time in a row are linked to multiple-party contests in the October 5 Assembly elections.
The ruling BJP is locked in a tough contest with a resurgent Congress. Besides, the BJP and the Congress, INLD-BSP, the JJP-ASP (KR) and the AAP are major players in the forthcoming polls.
Sources in the BJP said since Congress and AAP shared a common vote bank, the alliance between the two parties could have avoided a split in their vote bank.
“With the Congress and AAP fighting elections separately, their common vote bank is set to be split, benefiting the BJP in the Assembly elections. The BJP cadre usually voted for the party candidates en masse in all elections and the 2024 Assembly elections will be no exception,” reasoned BJP leader Vishal Seth.
Since there are at least two other political parties in the contest, the non-BJP votes would further be divided among them. With the non-BJP votes being shared among four parties, it would advantage BJP in the upcoming polls, the source said.
The BJP is supposed to be a cadre-based party and its cadre voted en masse for the saffron party in the elections. In the backdrop of this trend, the BJP felt that the multi-cornered contests have favoured the party in the 2014 and 2019 Assembly polls, helping them to form the government times in a row.
During the recent Lok Sabha elections, despite conceding five seats to the Congress as compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP led in 44 Assembly segments as compared to 46 by INDIA bloc—Congress leading in 42 Assembly segments and AAP in four.
As the party would mainly rely on the ‘panna pramukhs’ (electoral roll page in charges) for getting its cadre to the polling booths for voting, the saffron party would stand in good stead on those Assembly seats where the competition is tough among the contesting candidates.
Meanwhile, the well-knit organisation structure of the saffron party would also prove to advantageous to it as compared to the Congress which does not have district-level office-bearers. Other parties, including AAP, also do not boost of a strong organizational structure at the grassroots level.
