Anti-incumbency vs cadre strength: Congress, BJP confident after ‘low’ turnout

Even as the Haryana voters seem to have sent confusing signals to the Congress and the BJP with ‘less-than-expected’ voter turnout at over 66%, yet both parties are interpreting voting turnout to their advantage.

Will spring surprise

Since we have a dedicated cadre vote, which coupled with ‘silent voters’, should stand the saffron party in good stead. We will spring a surprise on October 8. Varinder Garg, BJP leader

Congress will form govt

When odds are stacked against the BJP in view of anti-incumbency, the voting percentage will not matter much. The Congress is set to form the government. BB Batra, Congress leader

Senior BJP and Congress leaders are exuding confidence that ‘lower’ voter turnout would stand them in good stead on October 8 when the counting takes place. The lower voter turnout in the urban areas than their rural counterparts is also being taken as favouring them though a detailed analysis would be done in the coming days before the counting day.

Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini was quick to claim that the BJP was well on its way to form the government for the third time in a row. However, party poll strategists are in the process of analysing the seat-wise data to arrive at a conclusion about the poll outcome.

“Usually a lower voter turnout should favour the BJP. Since we have a dedicated cadre vote, which coupled with ‘silent voters’, should stand the saffron party in good stead. We will spring a surprise on the date of counting,” claimed senior BJP leader Varinder Garg.

The BJP leaders contended that in case of multi-cornered contests on at least 20 seats, the BJP would be a major gainer as the Congress vote would get divided among the INLD-BSP, the JJP-ASP and the Independent candidates. “Moreover, on almost 70 seats, where there is direct fight between the BJP and the Congress, the Congress vote would also be polled to other parties and Independents making it anybody’s game,” Garg argued.

However, countering the BJP leaders, Congress leaders asserted that ‘strong anti-incumbency’ against the BJP was a major reason for the Congress’ return to power in Haryana after 10 years. “When odds are stacked against the BJP in view of anti-incumbency then the voting percentage would not matter much. The Congress is set to form the government,” senior Congress leader BB Batra said.

The BJP secured a maximum of 40 seats in the 90-member House in the 2019 Assembly elections when the voting percentage of 67.9% was one of the lowest in Haryana’s electoral history. The BJP polled 36.49% vote share in the 2019 polls. Surprisingly, in 2014, when Haryana recorded the highest voting percentage of 76.13, the party won 47 seats with 33 per cent vote share.