What Haryana results mean for BJP, Congress and allies

With the ruling BJP scoring a historic and surprising hat-trick in Haryana, the focus shifts to the formality of the formation of the new government. Union minister and BJP chief JP Nadda has called up caretaker CM Nayab Singh Saini — the party’s face for the top post during the elections — to congratulate him. There should be, thus, no further surprises from the state, though the Congress has moved the Election Commission of India, complaining about “alleged discrepancy in the uploading of the counting data”.

The situation in Jammu and Kashmir, too, is settled — it is almost certain that the National Conference’s Omar Abdullah will head the next NC-Congress alliance government. In his first reaction after the results started pouring in, Abdullah mocked the exit polls, which had predicted a “photo finish” in the Union Territory and a “slight edge” to the NC-Congress alliance. Some pollsters had also forecast a “hung Assembly”, with the Independents set to play kingmaker.

Big surprise in Haryana  

With the majority of the exit polls predicting a “definite edge” to the Congress over the BJP, Haryana sprang a big surprise on Tuesday. Almost all the exit polls had predicted a comfortable victory for the grand old party. It was argued that “10-year anti-incumbency” and “perceptible anger” among the formidable ‘kisan’, ‘jawan’ and ‘pehalwan’ combine would sink the BJP. In fact, the most optimistic outcome for the ruling party was forecast to be 32 wins in 90 seats.

The majority of the pollsters had predicted 50-60 seats for the Congress, well above the halfway mark of 46. The sidelining of Dalit leader Kumari Selja by the party’s CM face, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, is being cited among the reasons for the party’s poor performance; analysts add that the grand old party “peaked” ahead of time, thereby bridging the gap between the two leading parties by the time the votes were cast.

Bargaining power of allies

In the coming months, elections are due in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar. According to political strategists, the Haryana and J&K Assembly results are crucial not only for the two main national parties — the BJP and Congress — but also for their allies. Today’s results may also alter the bargaining power of all the parties for the forthcoming Assembly elections as they negotiate deals for a share of the seats.

The BJP’s strong performance in Haryana means that the party and PM Narendra Modi remain formidable forces despite their downsizing in this year’s Lok Sabha elections. Due to this, the party’s NDA allies — JD-U and LJP in Bihar, and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra — will have a lesser scope for bargaining.

For the INDIA bloc parties, the Congress’ under-performance in Haryana will diminish it within the alliance. The Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) in Maharashtra; and RJD, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Left parties (Mahagathbandhan/INDIA allies in Bihar and Jharkhand) may now be placed better on the bargaining table.

Being the battleground of the movement of farmers and wrestlers, Haryana was also a test case for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s newly crafted blend of socialism and caste politics. A favourable result in the state would have provided Congress a talking point in the other states going to the polls. In this context, the Haryana results are a setback for Gandhi, who had been experimenting with new ideas to give his party a narrative against the BJP’s tried and tested Hindutva plank.