Had Congress polled 23K votes more in nine seats, it would have won

The Haryana Assembly elections were remarkably close, with the BJP leading the Congress by just 1.18 lakh votes. The saffron party garnered 55.49 lakh votes, securing a vote share of 39.94 per cent, while the Congress followed closely with 54.31 lakh votes, representing 39.09 per cent vote share. This slim difference in vote share — only 0.85 per cent — marks the lowest gap between the two major rivals in the state’s electoral history.

In this intense battle, the Congress lost 10 seats to the BJP by margins of less than 5,000 votes. Had the Congress managed to secure just 22,916 additional votes in nine of those seats, it could have reached the 46-seat majority mark in the Assembly, relegating the BJP to 41 seats.

The Congress’ overconfidence during the campaign and ineffective booth management were pivotal factors in its defeat. The party struggled to prevent the division of Jat votes, losing 18 of the 35 seats which have over 50,000 Jat votes each.

Additionally, the Congress failed to forge an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), as negotiations fell through. AAP captured 1.79 per cent of the votes, which contributed to the Congress’ defeat in four key constituencies — Dabwali, Rania, Uchana Kalan, and Assandh — where its votes exceeded the margin of victory.

Regarding party rebels, the Congress expelled 23 persons for contesting against official candidates, with eight of them playing a direct role in the party’s losses.

Independent candidate Chitra Sarwara came in second in Ambala Cantonment, securing over 52,581 votes and pushing Congress’ Parvinder Pal Pari to a distant third with just 14,469 votes. In Ballabgarh, rebel Sharda Rathore received 44,076 votes, finishing second and relegating Congress’ Parag Sharma to the fourth place with a mere 8,674 votes. Lalit Nagar garnered 56,828 votes in Tigaon, finishing second and pushing Congress’ nominee Rohit Nagar to the third place with only 21,656 votes. Similarly, at Pundri, Satbir Bhana captured 40,608 votes, finishing second and leaving Congress’ Sultan Jadaula third with 26,341 votes.

At Badhra, rebel Somveer Ghasola secured 26,730 votes and came in third, resulting in Congress’ Somvir Singh losing by 7,585 votes. At Uchana Kalan, the Congress lost by a mere 32 votes, with rebel Virender Ghogharian taking the third place with 31,456 votes, while another rebel Dilbag Sandil finished sixth with 7,373 votes. Both dissidents contributed to the defeat of official candidate Brijendra Singh.

In Dadri, Congress’ Manisha Sangwan lost by 1,957 votes, with one of the party rebels, Ajit Singh, obtaining 3,369 votes.

The INLD secured a mere 2.44 per cent of the vote in the 2019 poll. This time, after forming an alliance with the BSP, the coalition aimed at the same vote bank of Jats and Dalits that the Congress was banking upon. It managed to bag 5.16 per cent of the votes. The INLD alone accounted for 4.14 per cent. The alliance defeated Congress candidates in two seats.