Geopolitical challenges keeping India on its toes
INDIA is recognised as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. The International Monetary Fund’s assessment is that India’s economy will grow at a rate of 7 per cent this financial year. Even as the country looks to maintain the growth momentum, it must be borne in mind that its position and influence in the world will be determined largely by its economic and technological progress. Given these imperatives, India has little choice but to strengthen its ties with countries in its immediate neighbourhood. This would ensure security and peace in the area extending from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf to its west to the Strait of Malacca to its east. The main challenges India faces beyond its borders arise from the expansionist ambitions and policies of China, even as Pakistan is mired in virtually perpetual bankruptcy.
India has also sought for long to develop closer ties with the oil-rich (Persian) Gulf Region, comprising Iran and the Arab nations, where around six million Indians live. India has built good ties with Saudi Arabia while simultaneously reinforcing its strong relations with the UAE. Delhi also played an important role in restoring a cordial working relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia after intemperate comments made by President Joe Biden about the Saudi monarchy were resented by the Saudis. The national security adviser of the UAE, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also participated in talks between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman. The talks were reportedly facilitated by India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval. An agreement for promoting cooperation between the UAE, the US and India was also reportedly finalised and signed shortly thereafter. The stage is now set for India to play an increasingly positive and cooperative role across the shores of the Indian Ocean, together with six Arab Gulf states.
India-US relations have grown significantly amid Washington’s expectations that Delhi can balance out the growth of Chinese power across the Indian Ocean. China’s policies remain committed to limiting and containing Indian influence. Beijing continues to strengthen Pakistan’s missile and nuclear capabilities. It also works in close collaboration with Pakistan along and across India’s western border with Afghanistan. New Delhi’s recent moves for strengthening ties with Iran, including the construction of the strategic Chabahar Port, give India increasing economic and maritime access to Central Asia and limit the space for Pakistan to hinder India’s access to Afghanistan.
While the US had objected to India’s growing ties with Iran, it now appears reconciled to Delhi going ahead with the project for a transport corridor linking it to Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan is predictably not pleased with this corridor, as it prevents Rawalpindi from hindering India’s access to Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia. This corridor, thereafter, can become a key gateway for India’s access to the International North-South Transport Corridor, which, in turn, would eventually link India to Central Asia, Russia and, ultimately, to Europe by sea, rail and road.
One important factor that has cast a shadow on India-US relations is the constant criticism by the US media of alleged violation of human rights in India, evidently with some encouragement from Washington. India may be among the few countries whose leadership found then President Donald Trump to be friendly — but blunt — during his visit to India. Trump has no illusions or expectations about China and has little inclination to even think about Pakistan. India can be confident that this relationship will grow, irrespective of whether Kamala Harris or Trump wins the upcoming presidential elections.
Nevertheless, relations with the US have grown steadily, with considerable cooperation for strengthening maritime links. This is an important development amid the tensions and piracy in the high seas — across the Indian Ocean — that have been accompanied by the Israeli occupation of Gaza. The US continues to regard India as an important strategic partner in the face of growing Chinese assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific region, extending from the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca to the Persian Gulf. Two aircraft carriers and as many nuclear submarines can be used by India to defend the shores of its Indian Ocean neighbours.
India’s problems and tensions on its borders with China and Pakistan are set to continue. Despite being nearly bankrupt, Pakistan appears determined to continue sponsoring terrorism in India. While the Sharif brothers and their civilian establishment plunged Pakistan into an economic crisis, India is now faced with Pakistan army chief Gen Syed Asim Munir, who wields substantial influence on national security policies. Unlike his mentor and predecessor, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, who understood the economic and diplomatic costs of tensions with India, Gen Munir appears bent on fomenting trouble in India, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. India needs to respond both diplomatically and militarily to this strategy.
While the Sharif brothers control Pakistan’s civilian and political establishments, they have little say or influence on their army abetting terrorism in J&K and elsewhere in India. Pakistan now has its hands full dealing with continuing unrest on its border with Afghanistan. Both India and Iran, meanwhile, have a constructive relationship with Kabul, with India primarily focusing on economic cooperation while keeping a ‘back channel’ open for communication with its maritime neighbours, without allowing Pakistan to make such meetings a target of propaganda. At the same time, India must be prepared to deliver appropriate retribution should Pakistan continue to sponsor terrorism on Indian soil.
