Fossil fuels on climate agenda a step forward
THE agreement forged at the end of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which concluded in Dubai a day later than scheduled, has managed to address fossil fuels, which were rightly described by a delegate as the elephant in the room.
Most of the members wanted a stronger wording that would include ‘phasing down’, a term disliked by China, India and members of OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). However, they settled for ‘transitioning away’. It was reassuring for many small island nations and the European bloc that at least ‘fossil fuels’ were named in the text of the accord. However, there was no hint of numbers and timelines regarding the reduction in the use of fossil fuels. Azerbaijan will host COP29 in 2024, and COP30 is scheduled to be held in Brazil in 2025 with the hope of further advancing the reduction of fossil fuels in the energy system. However slow and tortuous the progress on the climate front may be, there seems to be no other way than that of the UNFCCC summits, where consensus is the mode for making decisions and reaching agreements. It has become clear that the only way is to patiently nudge people into agreeing to the imperatives of climate action.
There was scepticism whether the UAE, a member of OPEC, would advocate for the phasing out of fossil fuels. It deserves credit for bringing fossil fuels on the climate agenda. The wording may be considered too mild, even too vague, but this is how things often begin before gaining strength and momentum. Admittedly, the global industrial economy cannot entirely abandon fossil fuels due to the risk of breakdown, which can have its own disastrous consequences. Both poor and rich countries would be severely impacted by such a move. Simultaneously, the challenging decision to transition away from fossil fuels cannot be delayed too long, with the looming threat of a climate apocalypse on the horizon.
There is a need for a realistic assessment of how the global economy can be weaned off fossil fuels. The production and transportation of goods and people are hugely dependent on fossil fuels. It can be argued that an efficient and economic use of fossil fuel resources could serve as a starting point. One of the features of the modern industrial economy over the past 200 years has been wastefulness, which, it can be said, was unintended. However, this is only partially true. The industrial mode triggered by science and technology was so exhilarating that little attention was paid to negative consequences. The mining sector, especially coal, stands as a clear testament to the toll on the health of miners. That dreaded occupational disease, pneumoconiosis, was the outcome. It is only now that human health has become a factor in climate talks. How industrialisation and crowded urban spaces created health hazards remain to be probed. The Covid-19 pandemic exposed the dark side of densely populated cities.
The unchecked expansion of industrial civilisation has given rise to the climate crisis. Finding solutions to this problem is not easy. Countries cannot easily break away from existing systems. China and India, for instance, opposed singling out coal, contending that they cannot yet relinquish its use to sustain the development of their economies. India was also not in favour of mentioning methane emissions due to its key sector, agriculture, as well as dairy farming. The OPEC members did not agree to restrictions imposed on petrol, diesel and natural gas on the plea that renewables cannot be solely relied upon to power key sectors like energy and transport. These arguments cannot be dismissed as pretexts to evade responsibility and reluctance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The harsh fact is that renewables are not yet in a position to run the entire economic engine, although their presence has increased substantially. India’s share of renewables in the energy basket has reached the 40 per cent requirement as promised in the Paris climate summit in 2015. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown keen interest in solar power and actively advocated for its development. However, it has not yet reached the critical position of replacing coal and gas to fuel thermal and fertiliser plants. Besides, in the transport system, renewables make a meagre contribution.
While transitioning away from fossil fuels, there is a need for innovation to improve the efficiency of sources of renewable energy. One of the renewables, nuclear power, shows promise, although there are concerns about the hazards of nuclear waste and the dangers posed by radiation through its use. Despite these apprehensions, it remains one source that promises continuous power generation.
It is not enough to set targets for increasing the use of renewables without drawing up exigency plans in case of disruptions caused by climatic factors. Hydropower will have to be reconsidered due to the change in monsoon patterns and the reduction in the volume of waters in rivers, potentially rendering hydroelectric projects defunct. It becomes necessary to contemplate a global grid for solar power, given the local fluctuations in sunlight due to seasons. The most important issue is the storage of energy generated from renewable sources, apart from nuclear power. There is a need to invest in research and plans for building an energy system based on renewables, and this would require international cooperation. It would be a bad idea to embrace renewables without considering potential disruptions. Climate action cannot be confined to containing the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It must also address how to help billions of people adapt to the changed conditions.
