Focus shifts to Maharashtra, next big one in electoral politics

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday launched development projects worth Rs 7,600 crore in Maharashtra, the next state in line for the Assembly elections in the county. After Haryana and J&K, the focus is now on the next big one in electoral politics—Maharashtra—the state with the second largest legislative Assembly after Uttar Pradesh.

Upcoming Maharashtra elections will decide the fate and future of no less than six political parties—national parties BJP and Congress and regional players Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT).

The Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (SP) comprise the Maha Vikas Aghadi while the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are part of the ruling Mahayuti in the state.

Earlier, it was said that both sides are “almost ready” with respective seat-arrangements, the announcements of which were expected  “soon” (INDIA alliance was said to be even contemplating making it public around Dussehra and likewise Mahayuti), but the dramatic turn of events in Haryana on Tuesday seem to have changed political dynamics, including sending them back to the negotiating table.

What Haryana changed

While the Mahayuti ruling alliance is upbeat after Haryana with the BJP expressing confidence of “repeating the performance” in Maharashtra, knives are out among INDIA partners with the MVA alliance partner Shiv Sena (UBT) criticising the Congress for going alone in the northern state.

“If the Congress wants to go solo all over the country, then it should announce it, so that everyone else would be free to take their own decision in their respective states,” Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut was quoted as saying amid reports of “tension” among MVA partners over seat-sharing arrangements.

Lamenting the Congress’s ability to “turn a winning innings into a defeat”, an editorial in 'Samana' (Shiv Sena (UBT) party mouthpiece) also attributed its defeat in Haryana to “attitude towards allies”.  “INDIA block won in J&K because the Congress fought elections in alliance but it went solo in Haryana and ignored alliance partners. It faced defeat despite people being upset with the BJP. The Congress knows the art of losing battles that could be easily won,” 'Samana' said.

Meanwhile, BJP ally Shiv Sena (Shinde) attributed saffron success in Haryana to people’s refusal to accept “fake narrative”.

Poll issues

It is not as if Haryana has resolved all issues for the Mahayuti.

Apart from expected factors like anti-incumbency, rural/farmers’ distress and employment, voters' perceptions over Shiv Sena and NCP break-ups, reservation is emerging as another key issue for these elections.

Last week on Friday, a group of tribal MLAs staged an unusual protest at state government headquarters Mantralaya by climbing onto safety nets installed to prevent suicide attempts inside the building after Chief Minister Eknath Shinde allegedly did not grant them an audience. They were demanding the removal of a stay on recruitment of tribal youths under the PESA Act and opposing reservation to the Dhangar community from the existing ST quota.

On the same day, NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar urged the BJP-led Centre to bring a constitutional amendment to increase reservation in education and government jobs beyond the existing cap of 50%. He told the media that while granting reservation to Marathas, who have been agitating for a quota, care should be taken to ensure that limits meant for other communities are not disturbed.

“Currently, the cap on reservation is 50%. But if Tamil Nadu can have 78% (quota for various communities), why can’t Maharashtra have 75% reservation,” he said urging the Centre to bring a constitutional amendment to raise the quota cap.

Mahayuti, in the meantime, is working on bringing the Uniform Civil Code in the state, as was also indicated by Union minister Amit Shah in his interaction with BJP leaders in the state.

After a below-expected performance by Mahayuti partners on the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, this is the first time the Shiv Sena and the NCP will face the electorate in their current divided form in the Assembly elections.

Maharshtra—SC/ST factor   

With 288 seats in the Assembly, Maharashtra is the second largest after the Uttar Pradesh Assembly which has 403 members. Just like Haryana, Dalits will be a key factor there as well.

Of the 288 seats in the state 29 are reserved for Dalits and 25 for tribals. But a large number of constituencies, somewhere around 65-75, are said to be strongly influenced by the SC/ST factor.

In the Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti faced setbacks in eight of the nine SC/ST reserved seats in the state.