Report Card: Why Indian experts are cautious on COP28 outcomes

No time to wait, India must act in its own interests

Madhav Gadgil

Global warming leads to more frequent occurrence of extreme events. While these affect all countries, India is particularly vulnerable. We should take steps to mitigate these effects in our own interest.

India is characterised by the world’s highest levels of aerosols — minute particles emanating from automobile emissions, burning of coal in thermal power plants and dust from construction, mining and quarrying, especially pulverising rocks to produce mechanical sand. As water vapour in air laden with aerosols begins to condense, it initially forms myriads of small water droplets. These then coalesce to form larger, heavy water drops that lead to intense rain over shorter periods. So, what would otherwise have constituted a gentle drizzle lasting six hours, now beats down intensely for 30 minutes. The result is more intense floods as well as increased chances of landslides, breaching of bundhs and collapse of buildings.

The hilly tracts of Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim as well as Western Ghats are especially vulnerable to these hazards that are increasing by the year. Geologist Himanshu Kulkarni estimates that the number of landslides on the northern Western Ghats increased 10-fold from 2010 to 2015, and a further 10-fold from 2015 to 2020; i.e., a 100-fold from 2010 to 2020. In October 2021, Kottayam and Idukki districts of Kerala experienced intense rainfall followed by landslides, leading to many deaths.

The worst to suffer was Koottickal in Kottayam. A number of quarries have been operating here for over a decade, affecting people in various ways. They have been ineffectively agitating to stop the operations. When landslides hit Koottickal on October 16, 2021, the quarries continued operations. Although only three quarries are mentioned in the official data, more than 17 were spotted in the satellite image. As many as 5,924 quarries continue functioning in Kerala despite such calamities. In fact, the state government approved 223 new quarries after the floods in 2018. This is going on although it is well established that there is a close link between hard rock quarrying and slope failures in the form of landslides.

In Kadanad, about 25 km as the crow flies from Koottickal, an attempt was made to put together carefully compiled information to combat this menace though a People’s Biodiversity Register, prepared as per the provisions of the Biological Diversity Act. The document noted that the quarrying of rocks in the biodiversity-rich Perumkunnu Hills was detrimental to it and should be halted. The Kerala High Court in 2012 upheld the Kadanad gram panchayat’s decision to not allow quarrying. Moneyed interests then alleged that the panchayat was being declared as an ecologically-sensitive area and the farmers and people would only suffer more by coming under the tyranny of the Forest Department. Under pressure, the panchayat revoked its decision. This is surely tragic.

Enhancing tree cover is an important measure to combat global warming. Regretfully, India is currently engaged in large-scale deforestation spearheaded by its official agency, the Forest Department. The Madhya Pradesh Forest Department proposed to accelerate deforestation by handing over about 37,420 sq km (40 per cent of its forest land) of degraded forest lands to private companies for reforestation. Private industry would have cut down all the tree growth and encashed it, before planting the areas with exotic fast-growing trees like eucalyptus.

Extensive experience has shown that such plantations by and large fail. As the report came out in the media, the government withdrew the proposal. These are but two of many examples of issues we must address in our own interests regardless of the stand we take in international negotiations.

— The writer is founder of the Centre for Ecological Sciences, a research forum under the IIS

Outburst has to be largely directed at developed world

Ramya Natarajan

WITH the emergence of the strongest evidence of climate change yet — the world dangerously close to exceeding the warming mark of 1.5 degree Celsius — I expected a strong statement on climate action in terms of not just ratcheting up ambitions, but also the means of implementation. This is especially true with regards to climate finance from the developed world.

With the conference being held in a petrostate, its President being the CEO of an oil company, and leaked documents prior to the conference revealing oil deals being planned, my expectations fell. The initial drafts mentioning an ‘orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels’ for the first time in history brought optimism, but hopes were dashed as the crucial points on finance and equity were missing in the final text.

Measuring success

It can be done by answering two questions: what happened at the conference and what do the countries do after? The main outcome of COP28 was operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund. This initiative saw countries pledging approximately $450 million — far from the required numbers but at least a good start. On the latter, we will have to wait and watch. Will countries go back and raise their ambitions? Will they clearly lay out plans and policies to enable the transition to net-zero emissions?

EU carbon tax

The European Union (EU) plans to impose carbon tax on goods imported from India and China (which Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has already questioned). Known as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), it will come into effect from January 1, 2026. The carbon tax would unfairly increase the burden on developing countries as they are already lacking the finance to decarbonise.

India is considering coming up with an agreement with the EU where we could collect domestic taxes, which will be exempted from CBAM. This revenue could then be potentially used to invest in decarbonising the industry. This will make the carbon-intensive sectors more competitive internationally as carbon taxes are going to increase globally. Industry leaders from India actually welcomed CBAM. As per them, it would be a good opportunity and incentive for the industry to decarbonise.

Cement, steel demand

The domestic demand will skyrocket down the line. India could reassess whether the increase in domestic demand could reduce the share of exports for these materials.

Orderly phase-out

When it comes to a global agreement on phasing out fossil fuels, individual countries agreeing or opposing the phase-out boils down to the timelines discussed. ‘Orderly and just phase-out’ seems to be the only reasonable way forward. This implies that the developed world would phase out fossil fuels first (by an agreed-upon year), followed by the developing world a decade or two later. However, given how dividing the remaining carbon budget equitably (fair share) has never been possible, the chances of the developed world agreeing to such a phased phase-out are low.

Even decades after becoming developed, the average share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption of high-income countries is 80 per cent.

India and other developing countries cannot possibly commit to phasing out all fossil fuels immediately as such a pledge will jeopardise their development goals. Coal power is still needed to meet the peak load and night-time demands. There are other sectors where affordable alternatives to fossil fuels are not yet readily available.

The outburst for omitting fossil fuel phase-out should actually be directed at the developed world, because adequate climate finance is the key to an eventual phase-out.

— Natarajan is a research scientist at the Centre for Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), a leading think tank in Bengaluru

Where’s big commitment, clarity on climate financing?

Bhaskar Padigala

THE UAE Consensus is a significant moment considering the fact that after three decades of UN climate negotiations, countries have at last shifted the focus to the polluting fossil fuels driving the climate crisis, instead of singling out coal. However, the agreement could have achieved significantly more on many other key fronts, especially holding developed countries accountable in meeting their pre-2020 commitments, and providing clear commitments towards financial support to the Global South to transition away from fossil fuels.

Finance is critical to achieving climate action and the early decision at COP28 to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund was a critical step. That said, while many finance pledges have been made, they are a drop in the bucket in comparison to what is required. The economic impact of loss and damage in developing countries alone is estimated to be in hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030.

Clean energy transition

We must acknowledge India’s complex difficulties. It has to tread a fine line — contributing to climate action, but also prioritising the growth and well-being of its population. (India relies on coal for about 70 per cent of its power generation and aims to add 17 gigawatts of coal-based power-generation capacity in the next 16 months). India still has a large section of population which relies on solid biomass fuel to meet daily energy needs. Therefore, India, like many other developing countries, should enable a clean energy transition with a focus on promoting renewable energy to meet its energy demand.

Moving forward

For India, reaching net-zero emissions should entail more than merely lowering greenhouse gas emissions. It must be a people-centric, equitable and inclusive developmental pathway. To accomplish this, India will need to pioneer a new economic development model that avoids the carbon-intensive techniques that many wealthy countries have already undertaken. This means that India must create millions of resilient and sustainable livelihoods while ensuring that its economic growth is not affected by various climate-related risks.

The transition to decarbonisation that is already underway — such as renewable energy deployment, energy storage, EV penetration, green hydrogen capacity addition, etc — needs to be accelerated urgently. Aside from technology, major capital inflow is necessary, and India’s workforce would need to be reskilled to support the green transformation. Achieving net-zero emissions in India and other developing nations would require significant and consistent financial and technical support from the developed world.

India’s role at COP28

India was an active participant, defending developing countries’ interests by advocating equity and climate justice as the bedrock of global climate action. While COP28 fell short on several counts, India managed to find the correct balance. Since COP26, India has advocated the inclusion of the words “all fossil fuels” rather than simply “coal” in the agreement. Parties were able to incorporate it into the UAE Consensus. At COP28, India showcased its own domestic climate actions/initiatives (green credit scheme, India-led Global River Cities Alliance) and also facilitating regional collaborations through international efforts.

For developing countries, a significant outcome was securing acknowledgement that the transition to renewable energy must be just and equitable. The operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund was a significant milestone for the Global South. Despite these gains, developing countries were expecting greater clarity and commitment on climate financing.

— Padigala is head, Climate Change Hub, Climate Change & Energy, WWF-India