As Pakistan votes

Sandeep Dikshit

FACED with the challenge of choosing a career after graduating from an engineering college, former director general of the feared Pakistani spy agency ISI, Lt Gen Asad Durrani, recalls tongue-in-cheek that he opted for the army because an engineer has no chance of becoming the President of Pakistan.

Four periods of civilian rule

1947 – 1958

1971 – 1977

1988 – 1999

2008 – present

The army is not a candidate in the 2024 general election in Pakistan that will be held on February 8. Ever since Gen Pervez Musharraf was forced to hang up his boots in 2008, the army has steered clear of hoisting one of their own in the top positions of Pakistani political echelons. But its ever-present shadow over civilians elected to prime ministerial positions has never shortened.

The elections this week will be no different. But there is a limit to how much the army can manipulate or exert its will. As the ousters of successive fauji Presidents, beginning from Pakistan army’s third chief Gen Ayub Khan in 1969 and ending with Gen Pervez Musharraf in 2008, has shown, civilians in the country do not countenance the crossing of certain red lines.

The throne of Gen Zia-ul-Haq, even before he suffered a mid-air ouster by a superpower, was shaky as surging crowds in cities across the country under the banner of a very vibrant Movement for Restoration of Democracy (MRD), led by charismatic politicians from the nooks of the country, were seeking his removal.

Post-Zia Pakistan in 1988 was one of the many moments in the nation’s political life when the balance between the army and civilians seemed to have been restored. But what followed in quick succession were missteps by the Benazir Bhutto regime, the maturing of seeds of political Islam sown by Zia-ul-Haq and the susceptibility of successive politicians in top posts to dip their fingers in the till.

But for the near-constant upheavals in the streets and the ceaseless thump of explosions, elections in Pakistan are as boisterous and with an equally colourful cast as the Indian ones that took place till Chief Election Commissioner TN Seshan in 1991 drove most of the open inducements to go underground, or get legitimised as freebies.

If in 2018, it was Nawaz Sharif who was virtually on the deathbed and out for the count, this time it is Imran Khan with jail sentences that could, in theory at least, ensure he will never be free in his lifetime. If in 2013 and 2018, it were the incumbent Prime Ministers who felt the heat from the ‘boys’, as the ISI is called, Imran Khan’s party or those headstrong ones who have remained are facing the full wrath of the state.

A constant factor in the pulling down of political parties is the role played by the ‘influentials’, or the ultra-rich politicians, who quickly desert the Prime Minister as soon as it is clear he/she has incurred the wrath of the ‘boys’.

The ‘influentials’ overlap with the ‘feudals’, who were the beneficiaries of land and power. Today, they have become a new generation of political aristocrats. “With degrees from influential western universities, they have seen to it that their near monopoly of national politics and economy remains unchallenged. In lieu of political support to the regime, whether military or quasi-democratic, feudalists extract favours through ministerial positions, loans and property acquisitions,’ wrote political scientist and historian Iftikhar Malik.

One such is Jahangir Khan Tareen (JKT), said to be the wealthiest man in Pakistan politics. Imran Khan copped criticism for travelling in his private plane. The owner of sugar mills and thousands of acres of fertile land, he was baptised under politics by General Musharraf. Booked for money laundering after Imran Khan’s ties with the army nosedived, JKT lost no time in parting ways and forming a new party.

If at one level are the ‘influentials’, who impact politics and voting patterns, Pakistan is also troubled by enfants terribles of different hues, from the peacefully separatist Sindhi parties to the bomb-and-bullets variety of Baloch Liberation Army and Pakistan Taliban, to name just two.

Ringing these political leaders is also the spectre of violence from a bevy of discontents. An explosion has already taken place near the Provincial Election Commission office in Karachi while a Pakistan People’s Party office was bombed in Qalat, leading the chief election commissioner to term terrorism the biggest enemy to the electoral process. Ballot papers and election personnel will be airlifted by military transport aircraft to Gwadar in Balochistan, and Bajaur and Kurram on the Afghan border to obviate the possibility of a roadside ambush.

As tensions swirl and a steady drumbeat of violence continues, India has been willy-nilly dragged in. The Pakistan Foreign Office has been quick to jump in on the US-Canada bandwagon of alleging transnational repression by also blaming India for some of the killings that have taken place, curiously mostly of religiously radical brigands fostered by the ISI.

These charges of Indian interference in Pakistan, topped by Islamabad’s allegation of terrorism by former Indian Navy official Kulbhushan Jadhav, have made difficult the task of any political winner to try to mend trade and political fences with India.

Nawaz Sharif has openly expressed the desire to rebuild ties with neighbours (not just India, but all of them, it now seems, after the conflagration with Iran and Afghanistan).

Bilawal Bhutto, who heads the other major formation now that Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have been virtually knocked out of the contest, seems to have got over his PM Modi is “butcher of Gujarat” jibe at the United Nations in response to S Jaishankar calling Pakistan the “perpetrator of terrorism”. His latest election stumping speech advocated talking to “all the four neighbours and enhance trade with them for economic benefits of the people in Pakistan and the region”.

In a throw of dice to extend his party PPP’s appeal outside the core catchment area of Sindh, Bilawal is also contesting from a Christian-dominated constituency in Lahore. Will that be enough to wrest some of the core Punjabi Sunni votes away from a welter of already established parties? He is also looking over his shoulder, as is Nawaz Sharif, over the large number of Independents. Many of them, it is suspected, did not choose Imran Khan’s party symbol to avoid the wrath of the establishment. But the electorate will reward their steadfastness with the imprisoned Imran, the latest “living martyr” in Pakistani political pantheon.

Noted columnist Fakir Syed Aijazuddin, perhaps a bit too candidly, described Pakistan as “a collection of holes tied together with a string” where “there was a void in the leadership of political parties ringed by the loyalty of its electorate”. This state of affairs makes a coalition government a certainty.

In this uncertain state of affairs where the PM of a coalition will be buffeted by pulls and pressures, Imran Khan cannot be written off. Didn’t the army intermittently make peace with the Benazir and Nawaz Sharif clans after spells of murderous hostility? Imran has recently indicated that he was asked to quit politics for three years in return for freedom. The authenticity of the assertion is questionable. But if history is a guide, both the Benazir and Nawaz clans were re-accommodated in Pakistan’s political life after they spent chastening spells of exile abroad. At 72, Khan is remarkably fit. Some years down the line, he could well be rehabilitated. This factor makes the Pakistan general election more of a semi-final in which the winner could be Nawaz Sharif and his allies.

DRAMATIS PERSONAE

Nawaz Sharif PM-in-waiting

A three-time PM but never for a full term, Nawaz Sharif dialled down his criticism of the army once he realised that Imran Khan was no longer its chosen favourite. His sins were soon forgotten and he returned from London after a five-year exile. Brother Shehbaz plays the perfect foil by never criticising the army. Both brothers have been acquitted of all cases and they have enrolled their children as they vie for the top slot in tandem with allies, and a helping hand from the army. It was during Nawaz’s last tenure that PM Narendra Modi had made a surprise stopover in Pakistan.

Imran Khan Candidate without contesting

He is in jail serving sentences that could last a lifetime. Many of the ministers in his government such as Fawwad Hussain and Shireen Mazari have quit politics after Imran’s supporters stormed residences of top army officers on May 9 last year. This was a red line that could make his offence unpardonable in the eyes of the army. Like Nawaz Sharif this time, he was called the Prime Minister-in waiting in 2018 for the helping hand he was given by the establishment. Several Independent candidates claim to be actually PTI candidates. As PM, he sought to build a social welfare state and eliminate corruption. Imran Khan could accomplish neither.

Bilawal Bhutto Bleak chance

With two Prime Ministers and one President in the family, Bilawal has gone national, with his PPP contesting many seats outside the bastion of Punjab. Debuting on his mother Benazir’s fifth death anniversary, he entered parliament in 2018 and his luck turned with Imran Khan’s ouster when he became Pakistan’s youngest foreign minister. With a bleak chance of forming a government on his own, speculation is he may back Nawaz Sharif in return for a plum portfolio in the Cabinet.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman Glory days over

A staunch Nawaz Sharif ally these days, the Maulana was the chairman of the political coalition that ousted Imran Khan. His glory days, however, were during the Musharraf era. He lost both seats in 2018 to PTI candidates and will have to exert hard to regain his political salience. He had led a ‘long march’ against the Imran Khan government when he had started having problems with the army.

Saad Rizvi the oddball in Punjab

At 26, Saad Rizvi became the chief of Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), formed by his father in 2015 in response to the execution of Mumtaz Qadri, a commando who killed former Punjab Governor Salman Taseer. In two years since becoming the TLP chief in 2021, Saad has twice brought the central government to its knees. This will be Saad’s first election from two constituencies. Even before Saad regalvanised TLP, the party was a credible third in all 14 seats in Lahore in 2018. Saad condemns the May 9 violence, but also condemns the mass arrests.

Khalid Siddiqui rebranded MQM in Karachi

Curtains came down on the 28-year-old reign of the portly Altaf Hussain over Karachi and Hyderabad after he badmouthed the army in 2016 in a video address from exile in London. Under Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui’s watch, the MQM has regrouped through ‘political engineering’ by the ‘boys’, say some. There is an important reason to do so. Last time in 2018, Imran Khan’s PTI had breached the MQM’s fortress. The ‘boys’ do not want to take any chances now. MQM might align with Nawaz Sharif to form the government.