Fear of losing ground drives Nitish

BIHAR Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is the proverbial cat with nine lives. He has remained at the helm in state politics for more than 20 years despite his shaky foundations. His party, the Janata Dal (United), is not formidable either in the state or at the national level. But he has tried to stay ahead of his competitors not through numbers but thanks to the fact that the BJP has not been too sure of itself in the state and has been willing to let him have the reins of power. This time, he has dumped the ruling Mahagathbandhan, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and Left parties.

When Nitish senses that his plan to grow as a national leader does not seem to be working out, he wants to save his position as CM at whatever cost.

The BJP and the JD(U) had together won 33 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in 2019; the former wants to do an encore in the upcoming General Election. It is for this reason that Nitish has snuggled back into the NDA’s fold. But how well is he placed on his home turf? It is the fear of losing ground that has been driving him hither and thither, first into the arms of the RJD and then the BJP.

There is speculation that Nitish’s exit from INDIA would weaken Opposition unity so much that there would not be any contest in the parliamentary elections. It is presumed that Nitish was a sort of lynchpin for the bloc and his departure would leave it rudderless. Nitish has for long been an overvalued political asset. He has not stormed the national arena on his own, unlike George Fernandes, his old socialist comrade. Nitish, along with Lalu Yadav, Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, was a product of Jayaprakash Narayan’s protest movement of the early 1970s; they became recognisable faces of a new generation of leaders. But they remained where they were. They did not leverage their success to make an impact on the national stage. A similar thing happened with Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot and Milind Deora in the Congress; Scindia and Deora have since moved on.

However, Lalu Yadav managed to consolidate his party (RJD) in Bihar, while Nitish’s JD(U) started lagging behind. And it is with the help of BJP that Nitish managed to stabilise his position in the JD(U) and lead it to victory. The JD(U) base in Bihar is not as wide as that of the RJD. In the 2020 Assembly election, the JD(U) had won only 43 seats, well behind the BJP (74) and the RJD (75).

It is because of his long stay as chief minister that every once in a while, Nitish tries to break out of Bihar and look at the national scene. He thinks that his sobriety gives him an edge over Lalu Yadav’s image of a lovable maverick. But sobriety is not gravitas. Nitish has been overestimating his stature as a leader of national importance.

And when he senses that his plan to grow as a national leader does not seem to be working out, he wants to save his position as chief minister at whatever cost. In 2013, he wanted to challenge Narendra Modi but soon realised that he was no match for him because the BJP had a larger footprint across the country and there was the RSS network of volunteers working quietly as foot soldiers of the party. The JD(U) could not match the BJP at the organisational level across the country. So, he went back to the NDA camp. When INDIA was being formed, he again sensed an opportunity and thought that he would be given due regard as the CM of Bihar, an important Hindi-speaking state. He expected to be given precedence over West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee. He wanted to head INDIA, but the honour was denied to him because there was little doubt that the Congress had to be the spearhead, a fact that was realised even by Mamata. When Mamata mischievously proposed that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge should be declared the prime ministerial candidate of the alliance, a JD(U) leader asked: ‘Who is Kharge?’ It was implied that being a politician from a non-Hindi-speaking state, Kharge could not stake claim to become a national leader, whereas Nitish was fit to play that role.

Nitish did not want to be number two in the Opposition ranks. In the NDA, his position is not in the front but he will continue to be the CM.

Notably, Nitish does not have much of a following in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the hub of the Hindi heartland, and he can hardly hope that JD(U) will make inroads there. Modi made a superb move when he contested from UP in 2019, knowing very well the electoral importance of the state which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Nitish and his supporters do not seem to realise that in the Hindi belt, a politician from Bihar does not stand much of a chance outside his state.

Nitish has literally returned to his den and there he has to remain, even as the BJP gains strength in the state and thinks of ways and means to replace him. But he has a fighting chance in Bihar and can hope to repel his opponents for the time being. INDIA is on a weak wicket for other reasons and this does not have much to do with Nitish leaving it. Nitish is not a strong and tall leader who can make a difference, and he knows it. He also remembers the outcome of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the state — the JD(U) fought against the BJP and won just two seats, while the saffron party bagged 22.