Population push
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has sounded the alarm. He has expressed concern over a paradoxical situation: population growth in the world’s most populous country is on the decline. Painting an apocalyptic picture, Bhagwat has warned that a society whose total fertility rate (TFR) dips below 2.1 could disappear off the face of the earth. He has a solution: Hum Do Hamare Teen — every couple should have at least three children. Does the RSS Sarsanghchalak want members of every community in the country — majority as well as minority -- to produce more kids? That seems unlikely, going by what Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at an election rally in Banswara, Rajasthan, in April. In a thinly veiled attack on a particular community, the PM had equated ‘infiltrators’ with “those who have more children”.
Bhagwat is worried most probably because of the findings of a working paper released by the Economic Advisory Council to the PM a few weeks after Modi’s controversial speech. It says that the share of Hindus in India’s population decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015, while that of Muslims increased by 43 per cent. The worst-case scenario for the RSS chief is the majority community being reduced to a minority. Ironically, Health Minister JP Nadda, while addressing a meeting on World Population Day (July 11), stated that ‘smaller families’ could help India achieve the goal of Viksit Bharat.
It’s true that India’s fertility rate has fallen significantly, in part due to a laudable rise in the contraceptive prevalence rate. A low TFR has prompted Andhra Pradesh to do away with its two-child policy, while Telangana is keen to follow suit. However, various states would be well advised to take stock of the resources available while reversing time-tested family planning measures. Can they handle the additional demographic burden in terms of healthcare, education, job generation and poverty alleviation? It’s tempting for political and religious leaders to play the numbers game and stoke communal fires, but they should not overlook the implications of such actions for India’s long-term social and economic stability.
