Polls in J&K

JAMMU and Kashmir’s decade-long wait for the Assembly polls is over, with the Election Commission announcing a three-phase polling schedule for the state-turned-UT. President’s rule, abrogation of Section 370, bifurcation of the state — J&K has seen it all. The delimitation exercise necessitated by the reorganisation has altered the electoral landscape — the Jammu region’s seat count has risen sizeably from 37 to 43, while the number of Assembly constituencies in Kashmir has gone up from 46 to 47. This will have a bearing on the election outcome and pre- or post-poll alliances.

The upcoming poll battle will be held against the backdrop of a series of terror attacks and encounters in the Jammu region. Terrorists have changed tack: they are targeting Hindu-dominated areas, while Muslim-majority Kashmir is no longer the epicentre of turbulence. In view of this shift, there is greater pressure on the BJP-led Central Government to ensure peaceful campaigning and polling. Elements inimical to India will try to disrupt the proceedings. The key is to create an environment conducive for the voter to come out and vote without fear. It will be a straightforward contest between the BJP and the Congress in Jammu. In contrast, the field is wide open in Kashmir, where the Abdullahs’ National Conference and the Muftis’ PDP will be in the fray along with Sajjad Lone’s J&K People’s Conference, Altaf Bukhari’s J&K Apni Party and former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party; independents with radical leanings can make the fight tougher.

In poll-bound Haryana, where the BJP has been in power for a decade, the Congress is looking to capitalise on the anti-incumbency factor. Both are fancying their chances, having won five seats each in the state in this year’s Lok Sabha elections. If the mandate is not decisive, things will boil down to the support of parties such as the Indian National Lok Dal and the Jannayak Janta Party. The kingmakers will then come into play.