Most populous nation
China and India have accounted for more than a third of the global population for over 70 years. As a United Nations report projects India overtaking China as the world’s most populous country by the middle of this year, it is an unsettling milestone in the public imagination. Demographers have been quick to caution against giving in to anxieties over the rising numbers. The focus, it is being stressed, should be on harnessing the potential of India’s population dividend and the creation of new opportunities. For the first time since 1960, the number of deaths across China are outnumbering births. The new Chinese policy that put an end to the strict one-child policy in 2016 and authorised couples to have up to three children in 2021 has not reversed the demographic decline. Far-reaching implications for its economy are expected.
Population growth has been slowing down in both Asian countries, albeit much faster in China. Beijing says it has taken active measures to respond to population ageing, and that population dividend not only depends on quantity, but also on quality. Talent dividend is the new mantra. There is a lesson here for India. Economic stability has to spur a skill upgrade on a mass scale, especially when 68 per cent of the population is between the ages of 15 and 64 years, which is considered the working population of a country. A big challenge is the substandard learning that is the norm at a vast majority of institutions, churning out armies of unemployable or inadequately skilled passouts. It is a self-inflicted injury that limits job choices, slows down innovation, accentuates socio-economic distress and worst of all, is a chance wasted to make inroads into the global market.
For a country with the largest youth cohort, coming up with solutions for the huge workforce is the key. The tag of being the most populous country may not trigger pride, but it would be imprudent to view it simply as a crippling burden. The India growth story is the shared journey of a billion and a half Indians. The cherished goal is to make it more inclusive, enlightening and rewarding.
