Iran after Raisi

THE death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (63), a hardliner who was perceived to be a strong contender to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has brought to an abrupt end an eventful tenure marked by a brutal crackdown on anti-government protests, besides frantic but futile efforts to revitalise Iran’s economy in the face of Western sanctions. Even though Khamenei has the final say on foreign policy and Iran’s nuclear programme, age is not on his side. At 85, he direly needs younger leaders to stabilise the Iranian ship. Raisi’s death comes weeks after Iran and Israel were involved in a direct confrontation with a tit-for-tat exchange of drone and missile strikes. Iran has also been in the crosshairs of Israel over its support to Hamas, whose October 7 attack prompted a fierce Israeli retaliation that has ravaged Gaza.

Even as Khamenei has tried to reassure Iranians that there would be no disruption to state affairs and has named First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber as the interim President, the potential power struggle within Iran will be keenly watched by the West and other stakeholders, including India. It was only last week that New Delhi and Tehran signed a 10-year contract for the operation of the strategic Iranian port of Chabahar, which was regarded as one of Raisi’s pet projects. Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the Chabahar pact as an important milestone that would facilitate trade connectivity to the landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asian region. Even the threat of American sanctions has not deterred India from strengthening its bonds with Iran.

Raisi had developed a close rapport with PM Modi, whose help he had sought to expedite the process of admitting Iran to the BRICS bloc; eventually, it did enter the grouping that originally included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. India will hope to forge a similar relationship with Raisi’s successor.