Dragon’s shadow over Delhi-Dhaka ties

After last year’s triple India-Bangladesh celebrations — 50 years of the Liberation War, 50 years of India-Bangladesh relations and the birth centenary of Bongobondhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman — and this month’s visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, both countries have described bilateral relations in the rosiest of terms.

India has called the relationship a “role model” and Bangladesh the launch pad for its Act East policy as well as a frontline state of its Neighbourhood First policy.

Hasina recently said: “I reiterate that India is the most important and closest neighbour of Bangladesh. The relationship between Bangladesh and India is a role model for neighbourhood diplomacy worldwide.” The frequency of high-level visits between the leaders of the two countries is unique and unsurpassed by any other bilateral.

Yet, this month, retired Brigadier General Qazi Abidus Samad of the Bangladesh Army wrote in the Dhaka Tribune that due to a threat perception from India, defence cooperation was affected and delayed despite the fact that Gen Hussain Muhammad Ershad (later President) was the first to attend the National Defence College in New Delhi in 1982.

He listed out a number of grievances Dhaka had like depriving it of “our share of water from Padma and Teesta rivers”, consequent river erosion and displacement of people and killings by the BSF on the border — once when Hasina was in India, thereby dishonouring her. But now, officers regularly attend each other’s NDC.

When I was invited to Dhaka to attend the War of Liberation ceremonies in 2010 after Hasina became the Prime Minister in 2009, I was feted as Mukti Jodha and made much of as part of a team of Bangladesh veterans. Bangladeshis’ love and affection for the veterans was eye-opening.

When I went to Dhaka for a conference before the pandemic and met our Defence Adviser, he informed me that the Bangladesh Army conducts its military exercises, painting India as ‘red land’/bad land/enemy.

Until recently, Nepal also used to portray India as ‘red land’. Every country is trying to identify its external threat. Soon after Soviet Union’s collapse, British Chief of Defence Staff, Gen Edwin Bramall, told me: “We now have no enemy. We are looking out for one.”

The UK now has an immediate and proximate adversary — Russia and China. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called China the most serious long-term challenge to the international order. Adversary challenge classification is either threat or capability based. Both approaches are being redefined due to great power competition, including the Ukraine war.

In Bangladesh, the Armed Forces Division, currently headed by Lt Gen Waker-uz-Zaman, is the most important organ of the military. It’s responsible for arms procurement, military diplomacy and coordination among the other two services. It is very powerful. The last and the fourth Annual Defence Dialogue was held this year between Defence Secretary Ajay Kumar and Lt Gen Zaman.

The big worry for India is China and its creeping shadow over its neighbourhood. Dhaka has traditionally enjoyed very stable and sound relations with Beijing, especially in the defence sector. Almost 80 per cent of Bangladesh’s arms are sourced from China, including two Ming-class submarines.

China is also its biggest trade partner ($18 billion), biggest investor ($26 billion) and has made project commitments worth $38 billion.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi on a recent visit to Dhaka thanked it for its “one-China” policy after the Taiwan episode. Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen has described relations as “historic and rock solid” with China as a development partner. Last year, though, Chinese Ambassador to Dhaka Li Jiming asked Bangladesh not to join the Quad which stirred the diplomatic hornet’s nest.

Bangladesh has trimmed its projects with China — cancelled the high-speed Dhaka Chittagong railway line, but it won projects to construct the Sylhet airport and the Padma Bridge.

Bangladesh, once a basket case, is now entering the middle-income group. It is on a very sound economic footing with stable macro-economic fundamentals. Its decade-long growth at six per cent has made it the 41st largest economy with a comfortable foreign exchange reserve of $40 billion, a rising per capita income and it is the second largest exporter of textiles in the world.

It has overtaken India in several human development and growth indices due to a prudent policy on remittances, exchange rate reform, trade liberalisation (before India) and development projects with immediate spinoff like the recent Padma Bridge.

To prevent economic crisis like in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, it has sought $4.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund. A strong economy strengthens Hasina’s hand among the establishment.

The state of bilateral relations is invariably exaggerated, partnerships embellished with terms like strategic special, privileged and lately “no limit” between Russia and China.

The India-Bangladesh relationship is more down to earth, with both sides aware, if not always sensitive, to mutual fears and concerns. To Brig Samad’s grievance list can be added: issues related to the CAA-NRC, border management, joint management of 54 rivers, return of members of the Tablighi Jamaat and Indian help in repatriation of 10 lakh Rohingyas.

India has sought close security cooperation, protection of Hindus and temples, expressed fears of revival of Islamist extremism and sanctuaries for insurgents and urged focus on counter-terrorism, connectivity, power trade, resilient supply chains and finalising the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. India’s Lines of Credit of $8 billion (2017) for 30 projects has so far yielded only $1.5 billion.

China’s growing influence in Bangladesh is a serious concern after land grab in eastern Ladakh and Doklam incursions creeping towards the Siliguri corridor. Beijing is curating a thaw between Pakistan and Bangladesh, though Pakistan is yet to apologise for war crimes in 1971.

Hasina has ensured steady and stable bilateral relations with New Delhi, though India has put all its eggs in Hasina’s basket. These need to be redistributed. A deeper military-to-military relationship is imperative to prevent India from being caught on the back foot.