Credible Opposition lacking in Hindi heartland
India has just witnessed an extraordinary reverse migration to the two overwhelmingly poor states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Stories of desperate hunger, courageous journey and overall despair have come from these two large states through which the Ganga flows.
All of this should have the people up in arms against their rulers, asking for accountability? Not quite. On the contrary, the lockdown has paralysed the Opposition in these states, and therefore, those in power seem to have suffered no real political damage — in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP under Yogi Adityanath has a simple majority of its own and in Bihar, it rules in alliance with the JD (U) under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
There are complex factors leading to this all-pervasive apathy and weakness of the Opposition. First, we live in the post-Mandal era when all parties that were born in that social churn in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are in decline. The Mandal-versus-Mandir moment that transformed northern Indian politics in 1990 could have ended in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with the forces of Hindutva winning. Caste groups that made the base of the subaltern parties such as the BSP, SP and RJD have splintered with sections choosing to go over to the BJP as the probability of their being in power seems greater.
To step back into history for context, two things happened in quick succession in 1990, changing the equations in Indian politics. On August 15, 1990, VP Singh, then PM, announced his intention of implementing the Mandal Commission report that recommended reservation for OBCs or Backward Castes. A month later, Lal Krishna Advani announced his Somnath to Ayodhya Ram Rath Yatra to press for Ram Mandir.
Caste-based parties were being birthed, even as the counter point was mobilisation as ‘Hindu First’, united against the metaphorical, historical and political enemy, the Muslim. Both the forces of Mandal and Mandir were, however, united against the old order represented by the Congress that would become largely insignificant in these parts.
A lot of water has flown down the Ganga since then and the parties that once empowered subaltern social groups appear headed for irrelevance. Mayawati’s BSP has not shown signs of life after the Mahagathbandhan with the SP failed in the 2019 General Election. The party’s ground structures could not manage even the basic minimum duty of providing relief for migrant workers. Mayawati is reduced to summoning news agencies to her residence when she wishes to make a statement, none of which have been of any particular importance.
Akhilesh Yadav, as leader of the SP, did try and gear up the party machinery for relief work. But on finding workers getting FIRs lodged against them, publicly accused the Yogi government of preventing his cadre from offering help, and being insensitive to the needs of the poor. Currently in UP, both the media and workers of Opposition parties run the risk of getting FIRs lodged for reports about human suffering or for trying to organise relief. The least significant party in UP, the Congress, has actually made the strongest statements during this phase that many call an undeclared emergency. Before the coronavirus/lockdown, there was a plan for Priyanka Gandhi to shift to Lucknow and rebuild structures for state polls due in early 2022. Whether it is in the realm of possibility for the Congress to revive in these parts is an academic question. What is a fact is that the space called Opposition looks empty in UP.
Opposition strength, or the lack of it, will be tested sooner in Bihar where assembly polls are scheduled for October-November this year. Some fundamentals of ground sentiments have changed in Bihar over the last five years. Traditionally, Uttar Pradesh was seen as historically more inclined to Hindutva because of its pre-Partition history, besides its social composition of 20 per cent upper castes, 10 per cent of whom are Brahmins.
Bihar has different social realities, but caste was the main division, making it hard for communalism to make deep inroads. That is changing. Parties such as Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD that rely on Muslim voters now find that their core caste group such as Yadavs could drift if they do not see the possibility of winning and a section does not want to be a voter grouping with the minority community. Muslims, 17 per cent of the voters in Bihar, would vote for the anti-BJP front, but if the RJD does not pick up momentum, a section would argue voting for Nitish Kumar, as a survival tactic.
Nitish is today the only product of the Mandal era who has a hand to play. Five defectors from the RJD have walked over to his party, and as Nitish gets into seat share bargains with the BJP, he has opened avenues to caste-based outfits such as that run by Jitan Ram Manjhi who is with the RJD-Congress front. He is presenting himself as an entity that could be the magnet for old political forces in Bihar that are in decline. He is doing so to strengthen his own bargaining power with the BJP. If Nitish wins again in November, he would be the longest serving CM in the history of the Gangetic belt.
In both states, there are large pools of the very poor. Voter groups want to be aligned with parties that can get them access to government schemes and relief measures. It is not accidental that PM Narendra Modi launched Garib Kalyan Rozgar Abhiyan, a scheme for migrant workers, from Bihar’s Khagaria district on June 20. BJP chief Amit Shah has begun a virtual campaign on large TV screens and the real messaging will be done on the party’s powerful WhatsApp network. After the terrible crises of the past months, people have their hands out for doles and are struggling to survive. Unless the Opposition looks strong, people will not risk wasting votes on potential losers.
