Will to prevail over the West brings Russia, China closer
SENDING out a political message to the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin chose Beijing for his first foreign visit since being elected as the President for the fifth time. Though there was no mention of their friendship with ‘no limits’ this time, the joint statement made it clear that Russia and China would “deepen the comprehensive strategic cooperation” and firmly support “each other’s core interests and major concerns”.
This was a calculated snub to the US and Europe, whose leaders had told Chinese President Xi Jinping in recent meetings that China was filling the critical gaps in Russia’s ability to sustain its assault on Ukraine by providing it with semiconductors, drones and micro-electronics. An upset US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told European leaders at a NATO meeting held in Brussels last month with “as much detail and specifics as possible” that China had supported Russia to the hilt, though it was “downplaying it publicly to maintain normal diplomatic and commercial ties with Europe”.
Campbell stated that the Chinese assistance to Russia was not a one-off affair or something that involved only a couple of Chinese firms. This was a sustained and comprehensive effort backed by the leadership in China to reconstitute Russia’s military force, long-range missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, drones, radars, long-range artillery and the like. Campbell urged Europe to impose collective sanctions on China, stating that Beijing might not retaliate in view of the “vulnerabilities of its economy”.
Though China has reduced the supply of dual-use items to Russia, it will not terminate such assistance completely as it plays an important role in enhancing Russia’s war-fighting capability in Ukraine. There are several reasons for this decision. First of all, Beijing and Moscow have a common worldview; they believe that the present international order dominated by the US is unfair and unjust. The global power is shifting from the West to the East, and it is time to shake off the US hegemony and make the world more multipolar and balanced. Secondly, the domestic opinion in the US is drifting away from support for the Ukraine war. Russia is making gains on the battlefield in Ukraine, and China must support it and be on the winning side.
Thirdly, Moscow and Beijing complement each other, as Russia provides crude oil, natural gas, coal, fertilisers and food items to China through the land route, which can’t be interdicted by the US in the event of a war over Taiwan. Their trade is settled in their local currencies, free from US control. Both can gain by cooperating in emerging and sensitive technologies, such as nuclear energy, space, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and cyber warfare.
Fourthly, the US continues to have an aggressive posture towards China, as seen in the imposition of higher tariffs on the latter’s electric vehicles and batteries, and sanctions on Chinese companies. There is no rationale for Beijing to oblige Washington. Even if China cuts back on its support for Russia, it’s unlikely that the West or America will drastically amend its attitude toward China as a competitor.
Russia believes that the West is determined to weaken and dismember it and that its conflict with the West will last long. The Ukraine war is likely to be protracted. And China, with its growing power, can play an important role in undermining the US global dominance and hastening Russia’s victory. Similarly, China thinks that the US is bent on containing its influence and not willing to accord the due status to the rising global power. So, their alliance can become a countervailing force in their long-term struggle against Washington and its allies.
China’s predicament is that the US and Europe are its key investment and trade partners, responsible for about 45 per cent of its trade. China has to publicly maintain a balance between its strategic ties with Russia and economic ties with the West, avoiding a confrontation with the latter while quietly aiding the former. It is Beijing’s hope that Europe, which has already been crippled by high energy prices, will not be able to collectively slap sanctions on it due to internal divisions and the dependence of important countries like Germany and Hungary on the Chinese market.
Trade between Russia and China reached a record $240 billion last year. Following the exodus of Western companies in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, China has become the supplier of everything, from clothes to machinery, cars and high-technology dual-use items. Russia is able to evade the sanctions imposed by the West with the help of China and other countries.
The joint training, cooperation in data exchange on the speed of strategic (nuclear-capable) bombers and the joint command and control in military exercises near Alaska and Taiwan have started worrying Western military planners. If Russia and China integrate their missile defence systems, the sensors on the Russian northern territory could give China an advance warning of the US intercontinental ballistic missiles traversing through that territory on the way to China, completely changing the scenario for the use of nuclear weapons by China against the US.
Though both Russia and China have misgivings about each other and suspicions of one prying in the other’s political backyard and copying advanced technologies, the instinct to confront the West can force them to shed past differences and fight together. Some American analysts are not happy about President Joe Biden’s policies uniting these two countries against the US. They are hoping that Donald Trump, if elected again as the US President, will wean Russia away from China by settling the Ukraine issue in a suitable manner so that America is not forced to fight these two great powers at the same time.
