Why Indus Waters Treaty needs to be renegotiated

GEN Pervez Musharraf, in his Royal College of Defence Studies (RCDS) thesis, inferred that water would be the casus belli for future wars between India and Pakistan. After the 2019 Pulwama attack, PM Narendra Modi gave a new twist to this with the statement: "Water and terror cannot be allowed to flow together."

The continued intransigence of Pakistan and the resurgence of proxy warfare, despite the Balakot strikes, have brought back the focus on leveraging water as a coercive strategy. India has formally asked Pakistan to review and renegotiate the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which regulates water-sharing between the two co-riparian neighbours.

India has the lowest per capita freshwater availability globally and is facing looming water stress. It has 17% of the world's population, but barely 4% of its freshwater reserves. Even by optimistic projections, India has only 90 days of water reserves, compared to many other countries that have two years' worth of stored reserves.

More importantly, Indians often fail to treat water as a scarce resource. In my lectures on the IWT, I've been questioned about the legitimacy of using water as a weapon. My response is: Why did we allow Ravi waters to flow to Pakistan when Punjab doesn't even allow the completion of the Sutlej-Yamuna Link canal to share water with Haryana? We are already experiencing domestic water wars over the Cauvery and Damodar rivers.

Invariably, the issue of the upper and lower riparian status and the potential blowback from China is raised. The relevant facts are: first, regarding the Brahmaputra (Tsangpo), 40-50% of the water originates from Tibet, and 70% flows to Bangladesh after accumulating in India. Therefore, the maximum impact would be on Bangladesh, especially during the lean season for flushing requirements.

Second, the Indus sources only 5-8% of its water from Tibet and India's requirements from it are minimal. Most importantly, China does not concern itself with lower riparian states, as evidenced by its actions in the Mekong Delta. We have already experienced the Chinese-triggered Pare-chu (Sutlej) deluge in 2000 and the Brahmaputra floods in 2020. China is proceeding with the Yarlung-Zangbo dam on the Tsangpo to create a 1,100-km channel to divert water to the Taklamakan Desert.

The IWT, often touted as a resilient agreement between two warring nations, has survived three and a half wars, proxy terrorism and Pakistan's obduracy for over six decades. The Treaty was signed on September 16, 1960, and, according to recently leaked documents, was a double-pincer effort by the US and the World Bank to keep India in check.

India was given full control of the eastern rivers (the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) while Pakistan received the major share of the western rivers (the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). In effect, Pakistan got 135 MAF (80.2%), and India received just 33 MAF (19.8%). India also had to contribute £83 million to finance dams and replacement canals in Pakistan.

India was permitted to create limited storage on the western rivers for power generation, flood control and general usage amounting to 3.6 MAF. However, India has failed to fully utilise this capacity and is now trying to catch up, although such projects require decades of focused management. Of the assessed potential of 18,653 MW of power generation, projects with a capacity of only 3,264 MW (18%) have been commissioned so far. Additionally, while 1.34 million acres are permitted for irrigation, India is using only 0.792 million acres.

On the eastern rivers, India has built major dams like Ranjit Sagar/Thein on the Ravi, Pratap Sagar (Pong) on the Beas and Gobind Sagar (Bhakra-Nangal) on the Sutlej, ushering in the Green Revolution. This transformed India from a nation reliant on PL-480 grain shipments in 1960 to one of the world's leading grain exporters today.

Similarly, Pakistan constructed dams like Tarbela, Mangla and Panjnad, which feed irrigation canals in its Punjab province. However, it has failed to utilise water efficiently, and is suffering frequent floods, high salinity and gross underutilisation of resources.

India recently constructed the Shahpur-Kandi balancing reservoir as an adjunct to the Ranjit Sagar Dam, which is essential to control the flow of the Ravi. In its absence, large amounts of water have flowed to Pakistan. The two-decade delay in the project was caused by inter-state bickering over power-sharing costs until the Central government took over the project.

A major push came with the commissioning of the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab in 2016, following a protracted arbitration process and a largely favourable verdict with river modifications. According to media reports, the filling of the reservoir resulted in 30% crop losses in Pakistan. Other projects on the Chenab — such as Pakkaldul, Lower Kalnai, Sawalkot, Rattle, and Bursar — are in the pipeline.

Even with these, India will only achieve around 62% of the potential 18,600 MW of power generation. Plans also exist for the Jhelum, including the Wullar Barrage for the Tulbul navigation project to ensure a minimum draft.

The IWT has become outdated as it never accounted for climate change, water stress or livelihood needs like navigation and salinity management in dams and reservoirs. As a result, the Salal Dam is choked with silt, posing a threat to the nearby town of Reasi. Efforts to desilt the dam have been met with resistance from Pakistan.

Every Indian initiative is opposed in IWT meetings, which have become irregular following the Uri and Balakot strikes. Indian projects, even those in the permissible run-of-the-river mode, are opposed by Pakistan and dragged into arbitration, causing delays and increased costs.

Pakistan has also resorted to using multiple redress mechanisms, such as neutral experts and the Court of Arbitration (COA), concurrently on the same issues. Since September 2023, India has boycotted the COA and responded only to neutral experts.

In light of Pakistan's filibustering, it is appropriate to renegotiate the Treaty to reflect contemporary realities. Beyond the issue of terrorism, India needs water for its growing needs. And, it would be wise for Pakistan to recognise the emerging challenges and Indian leverage.