US-China ties under scrutiny amid West Asia crisis

THE arrival of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Washington on Thursday has raised hopes of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit to be held in San Francisco next month.

The G20 summit in New Delhi had witnessed a meeting between Biden and Chinese Premier Li Qiang, even as Xi chose to skip the event. Weeks later, the world was rocked by the conflict in West Asia.

China hosted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit on October 17-18, while holding out the promise of a Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit, but putting forth its conditions quite clearly.

China acknowledges that there are many differences with the US, but these can be bridged if a commonality is worked out. As always, the Chinese are looking for ‘mutual respect’ among their core interests.

China wants the US to back off on Taiwan, as it perceives that the US is mobilising Japan, the Philippines and Australia to robustly challenge it. Beijing also wants that the issues of democracy and human rights should not be raised by the US. China is keen that its path to development within its economic and political order should not be unduly criticised or impeded by America and its allies. It decries sanctions on hi-tech exports by the US, and the encouragement to decoupling and ‘China plus one’ policies. China also wants to avoid the ‘autocracy vs democracy’ debate.

What does it offer in return? It offers the possibility of a G2 management of the world since it has Russia firmly behind it. If it gets that G2 opportunity, it promises to offer a constructive and cooperative relationship with the US. Meanwhile, it has imposed curbs on graphite exports to counter the US move to inhibit technology exports to China.

China, it seems, is seeking a panda moment again in its ties with the US. Some of the pandas gifted to the US around 1972 are scheduled to return to China in December this year, but if a Xi-Biden summit is held in November, new pandas may actually come to the US and bring new green shoots.

There is no indication that the US would accept these Chinese terms. The crisis in West Asia has brought instability well beyond Ukraine and Taiwan, which the US is scrounging to control. This is because the Israeli factor has a strong domestic dimension in the US. Yet, Israeli actions have the potential of undoing the Abraham Accords and the consequent economic progress through peace under the West Asia plan.

This is where China’s West Asia interests come into play. China has been creating an alternative alliance with Russia and Iran, whose main aim is to destabilise American policies. Since Iran isn’t in the US-brokered Accords, this could mean adopting an anti-Israel attitude and provoking an Arab reaction against Israel where feasible. The quick pace of the Accords and the speed with which Saudi Arabia was moving towards a rapprochement with Israel was unsettling for the perceived loss of influence for China. China invested considerably in the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in March this year. Saudi Arabian embrace of Israel is impacting Chinese interests.

Therefore, the Hamas attack against Israel, whether provoked by Iran, China or others, is manna from heaven for the Chinese policy in West Asia. Neither China nor Russia has condemned Hamas, but they continue to criticise Israel for its Palestinian policy. Given China’s influence with Iran, it is noticeable that the US has not directly blamed Iran for the Hamas strikes. This is to keep the pot boiling and allowing China leeway in the region.

The Chinese aim is to exploit the situation to side with Hamas and Arab nations. It hopes to find a role as a mediator in West Asia, which is actually an arena of US policy preferences. The China-Russia-Iran axis will work towards this end. Zhai Jun, China’s special envoy to West Asia, met Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian President’s special representative for West Asia and Africa, in Qatar last week and enunciated this strategy.

Condemning Israel, not criticising Hamas, fostering Arab unity and resumption of peace talks between Palestine and Israel for a two-state solution, preferably facilitated by China, are the objectives. A bigger Chinese role will be a reduction of the US influence, and hence Washington may seek a cooperative complementary effort with China to address the Israeli quagmire.

After Biden’s less-than-successful visit to Israel and sensing the anguish of the Arabs, it will perhaps become clear to the Americans that to safeguard their West Asia policy, they may have to work more closely with China. Perhaps that will prevent Saudi Arabia from ditching Israel firmly and not give Iran avenues to further destabilise the region. Managing these two could have a Chinese role.

The recent expansion of BRICS is proving useful for China. South Africa is better aligned with China’s West Asia policy. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and the UAE are now part of BRICS. China is working with each of them to build a place for itself. However, at the BRI summit, the only senior Arab leaders were the Egyptian PM and the UAE’s special representative.

The China-Arab summit in December 2022 mentioned the Arab countries as a new strategic pillar of multilateral partnership for China. China views this as an instance of South-South cooperation and a part of building communities with a shared future. The emergence of a cooperation system has energy cooperation at the core and includes infrastructure, trade and investment. It seeks to utilise technologies related to nuclear energy, space and new energy as elements of cooperation.

After its Saudi-Iran initiative, China now has the opportunity to extend its influence in the region amid the Israel-Hamas war.