US, China differences to be the new normal

Former Ambassador

At the Alaska meetings with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan from March 18-19, 2021, China’s Politburo member and top diplomat, Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had tough and contentious discussions on America’s growing criticism of China’s human rights record in Xinjiang, Tibet, suppression of democratic rights in Hong Kong, cyber attacks against the US and aggressive behaviour towards the allies and partners of the US.

Responding to Blinken’s two minutes of opening remarks with his 16 minutes of diatribe, Yang accused the US of condescension and hypocrisy. He said the US values did not represent the international public opinion and it was not qualified to give any lectures to China on these issues. China would not countenance any interference on its sovereignty issues, such as Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang or Taiwan. Yang insisted that the US must give China equality of treatment.

Though the meeting helped the two sides in gaining a sense of their differing perceptions and the future trajectory of their relationship, it made clear that the differences and disagreements between them would be the new normal. Any hope of altering China’s behaviour, domestically or towards the US and its allies, would be a long process with little chance of success.

On the Chinese side, any expectation that the Biden administration would resume normal ties or remove tariffs on China’s exports, sanctions for denial of sensitive technologies, visa and other restrictions on the Communist party members, Chinese students, journalists and companies, was quickly dispelled.

The increasing acrimony between the US and China reflects the growing differences in their mutual perceptions due to the belief in the superiority of their political systems, increasing weight in the shifting balance of global power and domestic pressures.

President Biden believes that with the $1.9-trillion stimulus, the US economy is gathering strength and with the superiority of the US political system, its technological and military strength and growing support of its numerous allies and partners, the US would ultimately prevail in its competition over China. Given the growing anti-China sentiment in the US and strong pressure from the Republicans and many Democrats, the Biden administration can’t appear to be weak in its resolve. Biden said that he was proud of the stand taken by his Secretary of State.

China’s President Xi Jinping has played up on the superiority of the Chinese political system to deliver on controlling the pandemic and revival of its economy. He believes that the East is rising and the West is declining and that time is on China’s side. The more powerful that China becomes, the less unbridled the US would be.

Where do they go from here? Blinken said the US would consult with its allies and partners in the NATO, EU and Asia and factor in the Chinese perceptions in the US new strategy to win the long-term competition against her. On March 22, the US, EU, UK and Canada concurrently announced additional sanctions on a number of Chinese officials for human rights violations in Xinjiang. China responded by imposing its own sanctions on a range of European individuals and organisations, thus tail-spinning their relationship further and raising question marks over the approval of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) by the European Parliament.

After Biden called Russian President Putin a “killer”, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov decided to visit China on March 22. The two countries accused the US of creating a Cold War-like alliance and hit out against the Western sanctions tied to human rights. They decided to deepen cooperation in economic, political and military fields to counter the US pressure. China is also consulting with other countries estranged with the US, such as Turkey and Iran, to form a group to show that it is not isolated.

Against these perceptions, the US-China rivalry is bound to gather fresh steam. Aware that China has deployed more military assets in the East China Sea than the US (China’s 1,250 fighter jets to America’s 250, six times more submarines and nine times as many warships than the US), the US is likely to station more military assets in the region to honour its security commitments to Japan, Taiwan and other countries. There will be more joint military drills in the East China Sea to deter Beijing’s aggressive posture.

The allies and partners of the US who want to maintain their security relationship with the US and economic linkages with Beijing would have the difficult task of constantly adjusting their ties to the evolving situation. Quad countries are already beefing up their military preparedness. The US has asked Japan to increase its military spending from the current 1 per cent of its GDP to about 2 per cent. The US has discussed various measures to augment India’s security during the recent visit of its Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Notwithstanding its public posture, the Chinese leadership, including Xi, is not happy at the outcome of the Alaska summit, as it has dampened the prospects of Xi’s early meeting with Biden, which Xi had arranged successfully with Biden’s predecessors Obama and Trump.

The deterioration of China’s relationship with the US will not go down well with senior Chinese leaders as the country celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party on July 1, 2021 and Xi seeks a third term in 2022. China is now adopting a low profile and has cancelled the military parade in the celebrations for the party’s 100th anniversary.

The Chinese leadership is awakening to the reality that its relationship with the US has become much more difficult now than under President Trump. The simultaneous sanctions imposed by the US allies and prospects of cancellation of the CAI will be seen as yet another negative result under Xi’s leadership, clouding his record of ‘achievements’. The latter will be hard pressed to make new concessions now to revive the strategic dialogue with the US.