UK poll verdict more a Tory defeat than a Labour victory
THE overwhelming conclusion that emerges from the UK general election results is that it is more of a defeat of the Conservative Party and less of a victory for the Labour Party. Though voters demonstrated their deep disenchantment with the ruling party and the government, they did not show much enthusiasm for Labour.
The protest vote against the Conservative government ensured a massive Labour majority. The electoral contest witnessed one of the lowest voter turnouts in the UK’s electoral history. Many Conservative supporters simply did not turn out to vote or voted for the more extreme right-wing party, Reform UK. This contributed significantly to the devastating rout of the Tories, to the extent that former Prime Minister Liz Truss and dozens of ministers suffered humiliating defeats.
The lack of enthusiasm for Labour was a result of the general perception that party leader Keir Starmer could not be trusted because he kept making U-turns on policies regarding green transition, taxing billionaires, improving workers’ rights, child benefits and the welfare regime. He opted for politics of ambiguity by focusing on promising change, based on his assessment that voters were unhappy with the Conservative Party’s governance, but stopped short of offering concrete proposals.
The dissatisfaction with the Tories also benefited the Liberal Democrats — the third largest party, after the Conservatives and Labour — who were the main opponents of the Conservatives in some regions, especially South West England. Their tally of 71 seats (in a Parliament of 650 seats) is their best electoral performance since 1923.
The Green Party has achieved great success. For over a decade, the party could secure just one seat. But it broke through that barrier this time, winning all four seats it had targeted with massive margins. The party had contested 574 seats all over England and Wales to ensure the presence of its vision and programme even in those places where it did not have an adequate party structure. It emerged in the second place in a substantial number of seats, suggesting the possibility of further expansion. The increasing influence of the Green Party is an indication of the growing consciousness, especially among younger and university-educated voters, of the urgency of green economic policies to avert a climate catastrophe. The party bagged nearly 8 per cent of the votes in the country, indicating that if there were to be a proportional representation system of election, the party’s seats and influence in Parliament and policy-making would achieve a substantial boost.
The shift from the flawed first-past-the-post system of elections to the proportional representation system is strongly supported by the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party. The Labour Party conference has also formally passed a resolution in favour of proportional representation, and it remains to be seen whether the new government will actively seek to bring about this change in the electoral system. The UK is the only country in Europe that does not have any proportional representation dimension in its election system. Unfortunately, the first-past-the-post system followed in the UK has left its impact on its erstwhile colonies, such as some countries in South Asia.
The mismanagement of the economy during the past five years of Conservative rule, with an emphasis on a market-oriented mode of governance, led to the weakening of public services — the National Health Service, schools, social care, sewerage and the public transport system, especially the railways. This mismanagement became most glaring during Truss’ brief tenure as the PM. Her drastic policy of reducing taxes and depending on debt to finance governance rattled the markets and led to a rise in inflation, which then fuelled an increase in interest and mortgage rates. The rise in mortgage rates, coupled with a surge in food prices because of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, led to a drastic increase in the cost of living for a wide section of the population.
Rishi Sunak and his Chancellor (Finance Minister) Jeremy Hunt had little time to undo the damage inflicted on the economy by her mismanagement. Both did demonstrate some economic competence, which is partly the reason that they have won from their respective constituencies, while many of their colleagues have been badly defeated. However, their social base — richer sections of the population — led them to pursue economic policies like reducing welfare expenditure, which damaged their political support.
The UK is composed of four regions (called nations) — England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — and each of them has its own specific political culture and complexities. England is the biggest of the four nations.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP), whose programme centres on seeking independence from the UK, faced a huge defeat despite no decline in the demand for independence. Scottish voters rejected SNP candidates because of the financial mismanagement of the party and voted Labour after a long time to both punish the SNP and defeat the Conservatives.
In Wales, the Conservative Party did not win a single seat. Plaid Cymru, a votary of Welsh independence from the UK, increased its seat count and vote share, though Labour won a majority.
In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin, which advocates for a united Ireland, emerged as the single largest party for the first time; none of the England-based parties has any presence there.
The incoming Labour government led by Starmer faces myriad challenges. It has to steer the economy to improve public services, manage immigration to minimise the dangers of the rise of the anti-immigrant Reform UK, devolve power to meet aspirations for independence of non-English regions, contribute to reducing tensions in Ukraine and Gaza and tackle the problems emerging from climate change.
