Trump cashed in on the Biden burden
THE 2024 US presidential election has ushered in the sunrise of victor Donald Trump’s resurgent MAGA (Make America Great Again) era. If the Americans were taken by surprise when he won in 2016, this time they have chosen him with their eyes wide open. The man who went through two impeachment trials, two assassination attempts, a conviction in a case relating to falsifying business records, a loss in a presidential election and was held liable for sexual abuse, yet came back and took control of the Republican Party, has made the biggest comeback in American political history.
Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton previously says a great deal about racism and sexism in America.
Trump’s agenda for the second term is daunting — the deportation of some 10 million illegal migrants from the US and raising tariffs by 10-20 per cent on all imports, with a high rate of 60-100 per cent for China. Both ideas are a recipe for social turmoil and economic catastrophe that will affect not just the US but the whole world. And these are only part of his programme — which includes the use of the Army to crack down on the far left in the US — to completely remake the US government. But Trumpism is much more organised today than when he became President the first time around.
The warning bells were there. An ABC News/Ipsos poll whose findings were released on Sunday said 74 per cent of the American people thought that the country, racked by inflation and illegal immigration, was headed in the wrong direction. Trump, who has used anger and grievance as part of his politics, was able to tap into this sentiment effectively and win the election.
In the end, what brought Harris down was the record of the Biden administration, which the Trump campaign managed to pin on her. The economy and immigration were two issues in which Trump led Harris all through. Also, the gender gap — not between women and Trump, but between white men and women and Harris. Trump’s victory over Harris and Hillary Clinton previously says a great deal about racism and sexism in contemporary America.
The ‘good performance’ of the economy under Biden just didn’t wash. Public perception was that it was not effectual and had led to inflation and a rise in the prices of everyday commodities. Trump derived an enormous advantage from his attack on illegal immigration, for which he blamed Harris. He said illegal immigrants had swamped the US and were posing a threat to the wellbeing of ordinary Americans through their criminal activities. Immigration was cited by 15 per cent of the respondents of the poll mentioned above as the most important issue in deciding their vote.
The Republican Party has now also taken control of the Senate and is likely to retain its majority in the House of Representatives. If so, the Trump administration will have an extraordinary opportunity to push its agenda.
In some ways, this election may mark a realignment in American politics with a distinct rightward shift. The reason why the election is being termed potentially the most consequential in history is because the candidates represented two fundamentally different visions of America. Harris had an agenda that looked ahead, while Trump has promised to restore America’s glory — white as well as prosperous.
There could be dramatic shifts in foreign policy too. The Trump administration will all but abandon Ukraine and leave the Europeans to clean up the mess on their own. It would also strongly back Israel with attendant consequences for West Asia, if not the world. Overall, the US standing in the world could be shaken up rudely.
Despite the downsides, it needs to be noted that the US is a remarkably resilient country. It saw a civil war in the 19th century. In the 20th century, it went through the Great Depression as well as the divisions that arose out of the Vietnam War. Each time, it has returned stronger and more capable. This should not be seen as an election that will bring some sort of a collapse of the American system, but certainly consequential changes.
The previous Trump presidency was not all that disastrous for the US. It was he who finally made the US wake up to the challenge of China and shifted American policy from its somewhat ‘woke’ approach of engagement with Beijing to confrontation on key issues of technology and trade.
For India, it did not matter who became President because both Trump and Harris were favourably inclined towards New Delhi because of geopolitics and geoeconomics. But we need the US to balance China and should be prepared to work with Trump through what will certainly be a rollercoaster ride. The Trump approach to tariffs will hurt us, as will his emphasis on reshoring rather than friendshoring. His attack on immigration will affect Indian IT professionals and students. And there is a chance that he could strike a trade deal with China, as he did in January 2020.
On the security front, India has been a beneficiary of both the Trump and Biden administrations. It began with the revival of Quad by Trump in 2017, along with a string of measures such as the creation of the ‘2+2’ format for top officials of defence and foreign affairs to meet regularly. The India-US strategic technology partnership was initiated in 2018 when India got the Strategic Trade Authorisation Tier-1 status, followed by the signing of the Industrial Security Agreement in 2019.
Trump’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, declassified just before he demitted office, said the US wanted to ensure that “India remains pre-eminent in South Asia and takes a leading role in maintaining Indian Ocean security, increases engagement with Southeast Asia and expands its economic and diplomatic cooperation with other US allies and partners in the region.”
